Latest Winthrop/ETV Poll results

Notes on this poll:

The poll was conducted among 1,088 randomly sampled Likely Voters in the South between Aug. 1 and Aug. 17, 2008. Data using all respondents has a margin of error of +/- 2.97 percent. As is true with all survey data, any results that use a subset of the respondents will have a higher margin of error.

For the purposes of this survey, "the South" is defined as: AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA. Data is weighted by state.

States are sub-divided as follows:

Deep South: AL, GA, LA, MS, SC

Peripheral South: AR, FL, NC, TN, TX, VA

Southern African-Americans in this sample were overwhelmingly supporters of Obama (only 3.2% identified themselves as McCain supporters). Therefore, breakdowns by "Christian" and "Evangelical" are done exclusively with white respondents. Many pundits have questioned whether the Democratic candidate can make in-roads with these groups.

For the purposes of this analysis, "working class whites" are defined as white respondents with less than a college education and an annual household income no greater than $50,000.

Not all results sum to 100% due to rounding.

Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there's an election or not. Others aren't that interested. How often would you say that you follow what is going on in government and public affairs: Most of the time, Some of the time, Only now and then, or Hardly at all?

What is your primary source for news about the politics? Is it local or regional television news, cable television news, newspapers, radio, the internet, talking with friends or family, or something else?

Do you Approve or Disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Thinking about the current path that our nation is taking, do you think our country is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction?

Did you ever seriously consider not voting in the general election if your favored candidate in the primaries didn't get the nomination?

Suppose the election were being held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -

[Caller ROTATE EACH ANSWER AS YOU ASK THE QUESTION]

Barack Obama, the Democrat (or) John McCain, the Republican?

Which of the following qualities is most important to you in selecting the candidate for whom you will vote?

[CALLER: rotate]

What is the one issue that is most important to you in the upcoming presidential election?

I'm going to read a list of issues, for each issue, I'd like for you to tell me - if you had to choose - whether you think John McCain or Barack Obama would do a better job on that issue.

The first issue is Healthcare, who do you think would do better on that issue?

How about energy, including gas prices?

How about the situation in Iraq?

How about taxes?

How about illegal immigration?

How about moral values?

How about terrorism?

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to John McCain?

The first is "Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives."

How about "Is independent in his thoughts and actions."

Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington.

Cares about the needs of people like you.

Is a strong leader.

Would stand up to special interest including those aligned with his party.

Shares your values.

Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems.

Is honest and trustworthy.

How important is a candidate's pick for Vice President in deciding which presidential candidate you will vote for – is it very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important?

Would choosing a Vice Presidential candidate from the South make you more likely or less likely to vote for a presidential candidate, or would it make no difference?

How important is it that a president has served in the United States military - is it very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important?

How concerned are you that, as president, John McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush as pursued - very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not concerned at all.

I'd like to ask you what you think about Barack Obama's level of experience. Do you think he has enough experience to be president, does not have enough experience to be president, or are not sure whether he has enough experience to be president?

I'd like for you to think about your circle of closest friends. Do you think the majority of them would have a serious problem voting for an African American for president, somewhat of a problem voting for an African American for President, or no problem at all voting for an African American for President?

In your choice for president, how important is the race of the candidate - very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

In your choice for president, how important is the age of the candidate - very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

At what age would you say someone is "too old" to run for president?

Even if the candidate were a practicing Christian, would having a Muslim parent impact your willingness to vote for a candidate for president?

Which of the following comes closest to your preference regarding U.S. policy on the environment

[Caller ROTATE EACH ANSWER AS YOU ASK THE QUESTION]

The U.S. government should be more active in protecting the environment

The U.S. government should continue its current environmental policies

The U.S. government should less involved in environmental issues

How important would you say religion is in your own life: Very important, fairly important, or not very important?

Would you describe yourself as a "born again" or evangelical Christian?

How would you describe your political beliefs, Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate, Somewhat Conservative, Very Conservative?

Which of the following best describes your regional identity?

[Caller ROTATE EACH ANSWER AS YOU ASK THE QUESTION]

non-southern

converted southerner

native southerner