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Ron Morris

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rmorris@thestate.com

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Sports - Columnists - Ron Morris

Wednesday, Mar. 31, 2010

Morris: Duke's run the result of bad NCAA seeding

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If you examined the South Region bracket or watched Duke's victory against Baylor in the Elite Eight, you might go along with conspiracy theorists who believe the NCAA and CBS were in cahoots to ensure the Blue Devils reached the Final Four.

Don't believe it. There was no second shooter on the grassy knoll. Those moon landings were not staged in Hollywood. And CBS made no under-the-table payments to NCAA selection committee members.

What happened was one of the worst efforts ever in placing teams in the regions. The seeding seemed pretty honest and fair. But the placement of teams was bad.

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If you truly believe CBS influenced the committee to provide a smooth path for Duke to reach the Final Four, then you must also believe the committee conspired to make certain Kansas did not reach the semifinals.

Rest assured, that did not happen. It just turned out that Kansas' Midwest Region bracket was as difficult as Duke's South Region bracket was easy. There are reasons for that.

Part of the problem with Duke receiving a No. 1 seed in the South and No. 3 overall seed in the tournament has do with the conference it plays in. It also seems as if the tournament selection committee annually rewards Duke for winning "neutral" site games.

The committee uses computer rankings to evaluate teams. Unfortunately, computers must be fed information to begin the process. So every season the ACC is considered among the nation's best, just as the SEC is considered among the strongest football conferences each year.

When it turns out that the league is only average - as the ACC was this season - the computer rankings are not adjusted properly. So, Duke's RPI was considered among the highest in the country under false pretenses.

Additionally, Duke defeated Arizona State and Connecticut at New York's Madison Square Garden, which has become a home away from home for the Blue Devils. Duke also defeated Iowa State in Chicago.

Give Duke full credit for taking advantage of this loophole year after year, and for having large fan bases in various metropolitan areas around the country. That is smart scheduling, especially when computer rankings and strength-of-schedule rankings interpret the games as neutral-site games rather the "home" games they essentially have become.

Given a high RPI and based on winning a share of the ACC's regular-season championship and the tournament title, it is easy to see how Duke received a No. 1 seed in the region.

What is more difficult to understand is the teams that were placed in Duke's region. One could argue Duke's bracket included the worst of the NCAA tournament's Nos. 2-99 seeds.

In Duke's region, No. 2-seed Villanova was the fourth-seeded team in the Big East tournament and headed into the NCAA tournament having lost five of its previous seven games. No. 3-seed Baylor finished second in the Big 12. No. 4-seed Purdue lost by 27 points to Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament.

Of the top nine seeds in the South Region, besides Duke, the only conference champions were Purdue and No. 8 California. Purdue tied for first place in the Big Ten, but was never the same after losing star player Robbie Hummell to injury in mid-February. California claimed the regular-season title in the woefully weak Pac-10.

Compare that to the Midwest Regional that included No. 2 seed Ohio State, which won a share of the Big Ten regular-season title; No. 3 seed Georgetown, which pummeled Duke by 22 points during the regular season and advanced to the Big East tournament championship game; No. 4 seed Maryland, which tied Duke for first in the ACC's regular season; and No. 5 seed Michigan State, which also won a share of the Big Ten's regular season.

Any of the top five seeds had a legitimate shot at winning the Midwest Regional, and as it turned out Michigan State emerged. By contrast, only third-seeded Baylor was a serious challenger to Duke in the South.

The only explanation for such a noticeable stacking of title contenders in one region vs. a group of pretenders in the other is the NCAA tournament selection committee simply botched it.

As for the other part of the conspiracy theory that officials' calls go Duke's way, well, maybe the Blue Devils deserve to get those calls. No team sells their fouls to officials better than Duke. The Blue Devils practice their sells and are very good at it.

My guess is just as teams across the country followed Duke's lead in playing attacking man-to-man defense, teams will get better and better at selling their calls. And when opponents catch up in that area, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski will have devised another plan to stay a step ahead of his counterparts.

Watch commentaries by Morris Mondays at 6 and 11 p.m. on ABC Columbia News (WOLO-TV)

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