Voting blocs key in governor’s race

Republican Nikki Haley is the first woman to be a major party’s nomination to be S.C. governor. But she’s low-key about the historic nature of her run, making few direct appeals to women voters.

And Democrat Vincent Sheheen, in need of votes from white men, has said nothing of identity politics.

Despite their closed lips, have no doubt: Both campaigns are well aware of the groups of voters they must attract and carefully are executing plans to entice them.

In Sheheen’s case, he must energize African-American and women voters, the loyal base of the Democratic Party.

But that won’t be enough to win in Republican-leaning South Carolina. Sheheen also must peel away white men, often more conservative in their politics.

Meanwhile, Haley starts out with the upper hand but must hang on to support from white men while making a solid play for women voters. She most likely will not need support from the state’s African-American voters and is not expected to get it.

A third gubernatorial candidate, Bruce Reeves, running as the Green and United Citizens candidate, is not expected to garner many voters.

Thus, the race is between Haley, a state representative from Lexington, and Sheheen, a state senator from Camden, and their ability to appeal to diverse groups of voters.

Haley’s female appeal

When Pamela Moore of Columbia was buying a car a few years ago, the salesman made sexist cracks, saying women were clueless about the car-buying process.

Moore gave the salesman an earful that turned the salesman red in the face with embarrassment.

“Even nowadays there are some people stuck in the mud in the South,” Moore said.

Moore expects some men and women won’t vote for Haley simply because she is a woman. But will it be a large enough group of voters to hurt Haley’s candidacy?

Or could Haley’s gender have just the opposite effect and help her win votes?

Haley’s gender will help her with moderate women, predicts Danielle Vinson, Furman University political scientist.

“These women have lamented the lack of representation at the state level,” Vinson said, referring to the state’s last-in-the-nation ranking among states for the number of women in its state legislature.

No women hold statewide office in S.C.

“All things being equal, these moderate women will choose her,” Vinson predicts.

Haley also is likely to retain the support of many conservative women who typically vote Republican, Vinson said.

S.C. women are not a solid voting bloc. A slight majority preferred the Republican presidential candidate to the Democratic one in 2008.

Republican John McCain received 51 percent of the state’s female vote, compared with Obama’s 48 percent, according to ABC exit polling.

Haley has found a way to take advantage of her gender without turning off conservative voters who dislike identity politics.

“She’s really focused on why she’s a credible candidate,” Vinson said. “Meanwhile, you can’t help but notice that she’s a woman. You can’t help but notice she’s an Indian-American.”

The effect is that voters give Haley credit for being a new candidate with a fresh perspective without Haley drawing direct attention to her sex and race, and turning off some voters.

“It’s a smart strategy,” Vinson said.

As for Moore, she supports Haley because of her stance on the issues. It’s an extra bonus Haley is a woman, she said.

“If she was a male with the same personality and same beliefs, I’d vote for her just the same. And I think a lot of other people would too,” Moore said. “But her being a women makes voting for her even better.

“It’s about time we get someone in (office) who knows how to change diapers,” Moore said. “Because we’ve had lots of men in there who’ve been making all these stinky diapers and not making anything better. We need a change.”

African-American voters’ impact

As Harry Alexander rolls paint on the side of a Five Points business, he talks about his family’s politics.

“My mother was a Democrat. My father was a Democrat. And I’m a Democrat, too,” Alexander said, an African-American who plans to vote for Sheheen.

State history says Sheheen, as a Democrat, will win the overwhelming majority of African-American votes.

His real challenge will be energizing black voters to show up at the polls, political scientists say.

“It’s not that (black voters) would vote for Representative Haley,” said Adolphus Belk Jr., a political scientist professor at Winthrop University and director of its African-American studies program. “It’s that they’ll stay home. He’s got to reach out to them and give them a reason to vote for him.”

If Sheheen, a naturally low-key candidate, fails to make an impression in black communities, it could be devastating for his candidacy.

In 2006, Democrat Tommy Moore’s lack of support among African-Americans was often cited as one of several reasons that he lost badly to incumbent Republican Gov. Mark Sanford.

Alexander thinks Democrats often take the black voters for granted.

“They know African-Americans are traditionally Democratic, and they assume we’ll automatically vote for them because of it,” he said.

Still, African-American voters are hesitant to pull the lever for a Republican.

While the Republican Party has attempted to make in-roads with black voters in recent years, those efforts have fallen short, experts say.

“You have people in the (Republican) party who really want to build bridges. But there are others in the party that say and do these foolish things that undermine the effort,” Belk said, citing examples including a Georgia congressman who called the Obamas “uppity” and a candidate for the Republican National Committee chairmanship who sent out a Christmas CD that included a song, “Barack the Magic Negro.”

Even though Haley is an ethnic minority — an Indian-American — she does not seem to be making a hard play for African-American votes. Ultimately, she may not need those voters to win.

In the 2008 presidential election, Obama garnered a whopping 96 percent of the state’s black support but still lost South Carolina to McCain by nine percentage points.

The working man

Harry Alexander may be retired, but he’s worried about the state’s unemployed workers.

It was on his mind during his daily four-mile track through Cayce on Friday.

“It bothers me that the people who want to work, who’ve always worked, can’t find a job. Even the state agencies are cutting back,” Alexander said. “I suppose there are people out there who like not working and trying to live off of unemployment, but I don’t know any.”

Again and again, men voters say repairing the economy and bringing work to South Carolina is their top issue.

Republican men seem to think Haley is the one to get it done. In June’s GOP primary, she won out over three opponents – all men.

Alexander, who has yet to decide which candidate he’ll support, doesn’t care whether a woman or a man is at the state’s helm. To him, it’s about which candidate can turn the economy around.

White men, long a staple of the state’s GOP electorate, are an obvious target for Haley’s campaign.

But they are critical to Sheheen too. Black voters are a minority, and women voters split between the political parties. Sheheen will need white male voters, often more conservative than women, to put him over the top.

In 2008, S.C. male voters not only preferred McCain over Obama but also preferred him by a larger margin than women voters. Exit polling shows McCain received 58 percent of the state’s male vote.

“A Republican candidate can automatically fall back on a lot of those men if the Democrat does nothing,” Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon said. “Sheheen has got to convince (male voters) that the path back to getting the state working again is not through (Haley’s) ideas. He must tie her to what went wrong in the past, including Sanford.”