After the gavel falls

August 31, 2012 

After four days in Tampa – nominating their party’s presidential and vice presidential candidates, and assailing the current Democratic president – what impact will the GOP national convention have on the November election?

Not much, according to history.

Historically, the Republican nominee gets a five-percentage-point boost from his party’s convention, according to the Gallup organization. Sure, a five-point bump would be nice now for Mitt Romney, virtually tied in public opinion surveys with Barack Obama. But, according to Gallup, the Democratic nominee historically gets a six-percentage-point bump from his party’s convention.

In other words, at the end of next week’s Democratic convention, the race still should be inside the margin of error.

Coming Sunday and next week in The State and here, online

Democratic delegates will be pouring into Charlotte over the weekend for their party’s convention, and State reporters Adam Beam and Andy Shain will be there. Daily coverage starts in Sunday’s State and on with a look at the economic impact of the convention – only 90 miles from Columbia – on South Carolina.

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