Where is the must-have toy to drive sales?

The Washington PostNovember 23, 2013 

These were some of the toys that Parenting Magazine picked as best of the 2013 toy fair.

In a year when one toy has yet to emerge as the must-have of the season, analysts say retailers and consumers are reverting to the basics: cars, dolls, Legos and bicycles. But that may not be enough to save what many expect to be a slow holiday shopping season.

“There are no hot toys this year,” said Gerrick Johnson, a toy industry analyst at BMO Capital Markets. “We don’t have a Tickle Me Elmo or a Zhu Zhu Pet or a Cabbage Patch Kid – nothing that is approaching phenomenon status.”

Instead, decades-old classics are inching their way back to the top of Christmas lists. According to a recent National Retail Federation survey:

•  25.8 percent of shoppers said Barbies would be their primary purchase for girls.

10.6 percent of customers said Legos topped their lists for boys.

•  iPads were among the most popular gifts for both girls and boys for the first time, outpacing the new Big Hugs Elmo, American Girl dolls and Furby.

•  Overall, Hot Wheels and Disney Princesses have kept their stranglehold at the top of the rankings.

Sales of toys have remained flat in recent years during the choppy economic recovery. Last year, toys sales totaled $22 billion in the United States, down from $22.2 billion in 2008, according to data from research firm NPD Group. That trend is expected to continue this year as analysts predict another lackluster holiday shopping season.

“In the 12 years I’ve been covering toys, we’ve always had something selling for a premium on eBay,” Johnson said, referring to the online auction site. “This is the first time we’re not seeing that.”

Just 44.3 percent of shoppers said they plan to buy toys this holiday season, down from 45.1 percent last year, according to National Retail Federation data.

“The problem is that what really gets people spending on toys is not necessarily the same old, same old,” Johnson said. “It’s innovation, compelling new toys – and we don’t have a whole lot of that right now.”

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