Exclusive | Edwards rises in S.C. polls

Palmetto State native might be in striking distance for 2nd-place finish

By RODDIE A. BURRIS - rburris@thestate.com

Watch John Edwards.

With only a day left before Saturday’s S.C. Democratic presidential primary, the former U.S. senator from North Carolina and S.C. native is making a move, tracking polls suggest.

While still in third, Edwards’ poll numbers have been rising since Monday’s Myrtle Beach debate.

One new poll says Edwards is threatening U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York for second place in South Carolina. However, no poll finds him threatening the S.C. leader, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.

For instance, a less favorable poll for Edwards — from McClatchy/MSNBC, released Thursday — showed Obama favored by 38 percent of S.C. voters, Clinton at 30 percent and Edwards at 19 percent. An Ebony/Jet magazine poll was similar. It has Obama at 37 percent, Clinton at 27 percent and Edwards at 15 percent.

The three new polls, released Thursday, found a high number of voters are undecided.

According to the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, Edwards has gained 4 percentage points since Wednesday and is the choice of 19 percent of likely voters. Obama maintains the S.C. lead at 39 percent but his lead is down 4 percentage points over Clinton from a day earlier.

Clinton logged in at 24 percent. That puts Edwards, who desperately needs a victory Saturday, in a statistical tie with Clinton for second place.

Edwards has overtaken Clinton among male voters in the poll, registering 23 percent support to Clinton’s 19 percent, a rise of 8 percentage points for Edwards.

The results were based on telephone surveys of 811 likely S.C. Democratic voters, called Monday through Wednesday. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

The Zogby poll also found Obama’s support among black voters has slipped by 9 points, to 56 percent. Edwards’ support among African-Americans, previously negligible, had risen to 5 percent.

Nineteen percent of black voters told Zogby they were undecided.

“There’s something happening here,” pollster John Zogby said of the S.C. race in a press release. “What it is ain’t exactly clear.”

A new Clemson University Palmetto Poll found Edwards in a statistical tie with Clinton for second place among past S.C. Democratic primary voters.

Obama leads with 27 percent. Clinton was at 20 percent and Edwards at 17 percent. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

However, 40 percent of those polled by Clemson were undecided — or unwilling to disclose — for whom they plan to vote.

Edwards also is up in a SurveyUSA Election Poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday.

He claimed 22 percent of the vote, up 7 percentage points from a week ago. Obama continued to lead at 45 percent, unchanged from last week, and Clinton tallied 29 percent, down 7 percentage points.

“At the very least, Edwards may do better than predicted,” said Todd Shaw, a USC assistant professor of political science.

To win, however, Edwards would have to pull votes from Clinton and Obama and capture virtually all of the undecideds.

“A little implausible,” Shaw said.

Reach Burris at (803) 771-8398.