Draft dodgers set up SEC for big year

Two months ago, the SEC was coming off a dismal basketball season. And as player after player declared for the NBA draft, it appeared the league might have to wait to get stronger.

But most players withdrew from the draft, including South Carolina’s Devan Downey and Dominique Archie. The only one to stay in was Kentucky guard Jodie Meeks.

Monday was the deadline for early entrants to withdraw from the draft. Knowing who will be back in school, here is a projection of how the SEC could play out next season:

EAST

1. KENTUCKY

Meeks’ decision ultimately might impact only Kentucky’s national standing; the Wildcats had long since become the East favorite thanks to new coach John Calipari’s recruiting.

Center Patrick Patterson did return, and the Wildcats have the nation’s top two high school recruits (John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins) three more in the top 50 and one of the most sought after junior-college players (Darnell Dodson).

The only issue for the Wildcats will be chemistry, but Calipari was good at meshing talent while at Memphis.

2. VANDERBILT

Why would the Commodores leapfrog USC and Tennessee, each of whom return most of their players and finished tied for first in the East last season? Because the ’Dores return everybody, too — and add John Jenkins.

Rivals.com ranks Jenkins as the nation’s No. 15 recruit, and the Nashville high school star plays shooting guard, the position where Vanderbilt needs the most help. As long as center A.J. Ogilvy doesn’t change his mind about staying in school (he has considered playing overseas), coach Kevin Stallings’ team is in position for a big season.

Forward Jeffery Taylor and guard Brad Tinsley will be sophomores, and point guard Jermaine Beal will be a senior. Along with Jenkins and Ogilvy, that’s a well-rounded starting five.

3. TENNESSEE

Tyler Smith’s decision to return for his senior season meant the Volunteers’ roster will look a lot like it did last season when they won 21 games.

The Vols will be experienced, with four key seniors: Smith, fellow forward Wayne Chism, point guard Bobby Maze and wing J.P. Prince. Also returning are Scotty Hopson, whom the Vols hope blossoms into the shooter he was in high school, and burly center Brian Williams.

The lone incoming freshman is forward Kenny Hall, rated by Scout.com as the nation’s No. 29 prospect.

4. USC

It’s a testament to the toughness of the East that the Gamecocks return four starters yet could slip this far in the division.

The decisions by Downey and Archie to pull out of the draft mean the Gamecocks have a chance of ending their three-decade-plus winless streak in the NCAA tournament. The four-man recruiting class, headed by wing Lakeem Jackson, improves the depth USC lacked down the stretch last season.

USC needs to replace shooting guard Zam Fredrick, the team’s second-leading scorer each of the past two seasons. Brandis Raley-Ross, a streaky shooter, will get first crack.

5. FLORIDA

The Gators suffered a big loss when first-team All-SEC guard Nick Calathes bailed for Greece. But they do add guard Kenny Boynton, one of the nation’s top incoming recruits.

Still, this will be a telling season for coach Billy Donovan, whose program has followed up NCAA titles in 2006 and ’07 by missing the tourney the past two seasons. Forward Alex Tyus changed his mind about transferring and stayed at Florida, but Boynton will need to be a difference-maker if the Gators are going to end their NCAA drought.

6. GEORGIA

The rebuilding job begins for new coach Mark Fox, who inherits a depleted roster. Forward Trey Thompkins is back, but he will have little help.

Fox will need to spend this year recruiting and laying a foundation. If the Bulldogs finish higher than sixth in the division, he should get votes for coach of the year.

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WEST

1. MISSISSIPPI STATE

The team that made an improbable run to the SEC tournament title won’t sneak up on anyone this season.

The Bulldogs could be one of the tallest teams in recent memory. Center Jarvis Varnado opted out of the NBA draft and should break the national career shot-blocking record. Renardo Sidney, a 6-foot-10 forward from Los Angeles, was rated the No. 16 prospect in the country by Rivals.

The Bulldogs also return the majority of the team that propelled them in March, including point guard Dee Bost and shooters Phil Turner, Barry Stewart and Ravern Johnson.

2. ALABAMA

You only have to look at USC and LSU last year to see the effect of a new coach, and Anthony Grant inherits enough talent to make a run in the weaker West.

Leading scorer Alonzo Gee is gone, but the other four starters return. Forward JaMychal Green has the potential to record a double-double every game, and guard Senario Hillman came on strong near the end of last season.

3. LSU

This is yet another team that was boosted by the return of a junior who pulled out of the draft, as Tasmin Mitchell did last week. While Marcus Thornton, whose eligibility ran out, was the consensus SEC player of the year, a lot of observers felt Mitchell was the Tigers’ most important player.

LSU has to replace Thornton’s scoring as well as the contributions of departed seniors Garrett Temple and Chris Johnson. Point guard Bo Spencer is back, but he and Mitchell will need help. Guard Aaron Dotson, a top-100 recruit, could start.

4. MISSISSIPPI

The Rebels were due to improve with the return of three injured players. But they would have been a lot better had junior David Huertas, the SEC’s fifth-leading scorer last season, not decided to start his pro career a year early in Puerto Rico.

Still, the return of point guard Chris Warren should be a boost. Forward Terrico White, who will be a sophomore, came on strong at the end of last season, and Dutch Fork High graduate Murphy Holloway also is coming off a solid freshman season.

5. ARKANSAS

Forward Michael Washington’s decision to pull out of the draft last month gave the Razorbacks a chance to improve on their dreary 2008-09 season. The Razorbacks return nearly their entire team.

That includes guards Courtney Fortson and Rotnei Clarke, who played well as freshmen. Guard Stefan Welsh, a double-figure scorer last season, will be a senior, and incoming forward Marshawn Powell is a top-100 recruit.

6. AUBURN

Coach Jeff Lebo took himself off the hot seat with a surprising 10-win SEC season. But with forward Korvotney Barber and two other starters gone, the coach could be back on the stove.

DeWayne Reed and Tay Waller will be heavily relied upon. Richland Northeast product Lucas Hargrove, who will be a senior, will get a chance to replace Barber.

Reach Emerson at (803) 771-8676.