SEC hoops suffering a down year

The league’s struggles out of conference may have damaged their NCAA hopes

Written by SETH EMERSON

semerson@thestate.com

Posted on 01.08.09

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For a while, the SEC was becoming a basketball league. It had a two-time defending national champion in Florida. Then last season, Tennessee was on the national stage, headlining a strong and deep conference.

Things were good.

Then came this season.

The league still has a bright future and there’s plenty of time for a team or two to make a run this March, but as conference play begins Saturday, there seems little doubt that the league is having a down season.

Oh sure, Arkansas just beat No. 7 Texas, adding to its previous win against then-No. 4 Oklahoma. And South Carolina’s win at then-No. 20 Baylor was a boost.

But it might be too late to make the SEC more than a three- or four-bid league when the NCAA tournament field is announced in March.

“It’s clearly sixth in the power conference pecking order right now,” college basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy said. “The problem is not just that it’s sixth, but a distant sixth. The talent level in the league is closer to the Mountain West than it is any other power conference.”

Ouch.

To be fair, Pomeroy said that on Tuesday, before Arkansas beat Texas. But the point remains that a lot of good players left the league, and the league did itself no favors in the nonconference play.

Kentucky opened its season with a loss to VMI. Alabama and Auburn have both lost to Mercer. USC lost in overtime at College of Charleston. Vanderbilt fell at home to Illinois-Chicago. Mississippi fell to Southern Miss. Georgia has a series of embarrassing losses.

Quality wins have been rare.

The highest-ranked SEC team in the Ratings Percentage Index is No. 22 Tennessee, which has victories against Georgetown and Marquette.

Half of the league’s 12 teams have RPI rankings below 100. Each team’s RPI should rise in conference play, but not as much as normal because team’s overall records aren’t as good as previous seasons.

“A real paucity of big wins may drag everyone down,” said Jerry Palm, who runs the site CollegeRPI.com. “The Baylor win for (South Carolina) was big not only for the Gamecocks, but the league as a whole because it is one of the few good wins.”

Of course, mediocrity means opportunity. Getting wins in the league should be easier than in previous years. But how far will that carry teams come selection time?

The consensus among experts is that most SEC teams will need 10 regular-season wins to be in the discussion. Exceptions may be Tennessee and Arkansas because of their multiple nonconference quality wins.

Joe Lunardi, who does ESPN’s bracket projection, expects at least four SEC teams to get to the NCAAs. The last time the league had so few bids was 1996.

As many power conference teams have found out recently, the days of a .500 record meaning automatic entry are long gone. The mid-majors are receiving more at-large bids, and a lot more may be gobbled up this year by the Big East, which already seems set for at least nine bids. The Big 10 and ACC also appear to have strong depth.

Meanwhile, the selection committee has made it known lately that it will punish teams with weak schedules. That bodes ill for South Carolina and LSU, each of whom have good overall records but very low strength of schedule ratings.

And having SEC commissioner Mike Slive as head of the selection committee may not help the league’s cause.

“When you play a lot of teams with RPIs at that level, when the calls get close, that will be looked at,” Slive said before the season.

Lunardi thinks South Carolina will have to go 10-6 in the league to “get them looked at.” Pomeroy agrees, adding that “the chances of that are probably not as wild as fans might think, maybe 25 percent or so.”

USC guard Devan Downey has a different take. He admits to taking a peek at what other teams have done and calls the league “very balanced.”

“People are saying the league is down because they don’t have a dominant team like Florida,” Downey said. “But I do think it’s a really balanced league.”

As the season goes on, more and more SEC players and coaches will say that. And they may be right. Players will gel, talent will rise and teams will get better.

But based on the nonconference season, the damage already may have been done.

Reach Emerson at (803) 771-8676.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

East

Gonzaga at Tennessee, 9 p.m.

Saturday’s Games

Tennessee at Georgia, noon

Vanderbilt at Kentucky, 2 p.m.

Mississippi at Florida, 6 p.m.

Auburn at South Carolina, 7 p.m.

Mississippi St. at Arkansas, 8 p.m.

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