Saturday, Sep. 05, 2009

Guesspert: Young coaches know it all? Forget that

FOUR MORE YEARS! Four more years!

No, I’m not trying to make a political statement. But I do like to whip you into a frenzy when it’s least expected.

What I’m celebrating is that we’re on the verge of kicking off the fourth straight year of crooked NFL predictions here at Guesspert Central in The State sports section.

In that time span, I’ve had a Colts horseshoe shaved into my head because Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl, invented shrimp and bacon tacos to eat while watching a different Super Bowl, interviewed Ole Miss’ future NFL defensive end who’s also named Greg Hardy, had my named misspelled “Gerg” by a group that gave me a third-place award for a column, finally won one of these darned fantasy leagues last year ... all while keeping my evil twin brother Orville out of federal prison.

It’s amazing what can happen when trying to pass off wild guessing about the performances of NFL skill position players as a substitute for genuine analysis.

Then again, the point I’m trying to make is that none of the so-called “experts” know anything. You do realize all those preseason magazines that predict who will get into the playoffs have about the same success rate as Gamecocks basketball in the NCAA tournament, right?

Wait, I take that back. That’s too harsh. I’m sure some magazine writer somewhere in this country has successfully predicted the Super Bowl winner in his magazine at least once since 1973.

So when Donovan McNabb walks off the field and admits that he didn’t know an NFL regular-season game could end in a tie, I love it. See, I have no idea how to march an offense down the field. He has no idea why in the standings there’s a column labeled ‘T’ next to ‘W’ and ‘L.’ In my book, that makes us even.

I also love ripping the idiotic decisions made by incompetent NFL coaches and owners.

And considering how the NFL is such a copycat league when it comes to successful things, that means they become copycats for ignorance too.

Take for instance, the hot trend of hiring baby-faced coaches who have no head coaching experience whatsoever.

Sure, it’s a great story when Mike Tomlinson can bring a Super Bowl trophy to the Pittsburgh Steelers. And one of my favorite running jokes among real NFL columnists was how “Tuesday Morning Quarterback’s” Gregg Easterbrook could never refer to Jon Gruden without inserting “I Was a Teenage Coach” between the first and last names.

Now it seems every NFL owner is convinced the youth movement is the way to go. True, the “first-year coach” movement earned massive respect when Miami, Atlanta and Baltimore experienced incredible turnarounds with newbies on the sideline.

Today, it probably takes the age of three or four coaches to equal the age of one Marv Levy.

But there’s been so many youth hires that we have officially reached the saturation point. What NFL owners fail to realize is that no matter how many young coaches there are in the league, it remains a constant that only one team is allowed to win the Super Bowl per year.

Young coaches do not equal guaranteed success. But you try telling your typical NFL owner that.

Here’s the first sign that this trend has hit the wall: Kansas City and Tampa Bay — two teams with young coaches — each just fired their old-timey offensive coordinators this week.

Chan Gailey and Jeff Jagodzinski? Sorry, you guys look old enough that you don’t have to be carded to buy beer. Pack your bags and hit the door.

I can only guess what goes on behind closed doors that leads to these personnel decisions. But I do know that August is not the ideal time to decide that the guy who’s supposed to design your offense should be treated as disposable as the teenager who fries the chicken strips at Bojangles.

Wait, I take that back. That’s too harsh. The teenager who fries the chick strips at Bojangles has enough life experience to design an NFL offense. Your hired!

Love to see where that trend will be four years from now.

Greg’s “Pop Culture Standings” and “Hardy Vision” column appear each week on CBSSports.com. He’s skewing young at twitter.com/hardyvision.

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