The crowds tell the story. As Election Day nears, Mitt Romney is drawing large and excited throngs.
Look to dusty Iowa cornfields, rain-soaked Virginia parks, the muddy fields of the Shelby County Fairgrounds, where a crowd of 9,500 – almost half of this western Ohio town – gathered among the barns and stables on a frigid October evening this week to glimpse the Republican presidential contender.
“Where else would we want to be?” said one of the shivering faithful, Judy Cartwright, a 71-year-old nurse from Sidney. “I want to see the next president of the United States.”
Romney’s debate performance against President Barack Obama last week – and his energetic appearances following it up – have fueled a rise in enthusiasm on the campaign trail. Whether or not it will translate into votes, polls do suggest that Republicans are fired up. It’s a welcome development for the Republican businessman, who is hardly a natural politician and has long struggled to match Obama’s ability to inspire excitement.
In Virginia, for example, Republican-leaning counties appear to be getting the fastest start on absentee voting ahead of Election Day. State Board of Elections data analyzed by the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonprofit and nonpartisan tracker of money in state politics, shows that of the 25 localities where absentee voting is busiest, 21 voted Republican in the 2008 presidential race. And of the 25 localities where absentee balloting is the slowest so far, 16 supported Obama.
Romney seems to be feeding off the energy pumping through his now-sprawling crowds, even as aides downplay the newfound momentum among the GOP base.
“I’m overwhelmed by the number of people here,” he exulted while scanning the sea of supporters packed beyond the fairgrounds fences here. “There are even people out there – that’s another county over there.”
Romney’s growing crowds come as new polls suggest he has erased Obama’s advantage in voter support nationally. Races have tightened in a handful of battleground states, too.
The president’s challenge on the campaign trail this year has been to match the high excitement bar he set in 2008. For Romney, it has been to exceed low expectations.
But recent polling suggests the “enthusiasm gap,” long thought to lean toward Obama, has leveled off.
The Pew Research Center poll this week found that 68 percent of registered voters who back Obama support him strongly. Some 67 percent of Romney voters are strongly behind him. That’s the first time Pew’s poll has found the two candidates even on this measure.
And a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted after the Oct. 3 debate showed the GOP nominee drawing “strongly favorable” reviews from 62 percent of Republicans, the highest level of deeply positive views that poll has found during the campaign. Overall, Romney’s favorability among Republicans stands at 87 percent. Obama draws favorable views from 93 percent of Democrats, including 68 percent who hold strongly favorable views.
Obama can still turn out big crowds. As the election draws close, the president is appearing in college settings where he can depend on the enthusiasm of younger supporters. Within the past nine days, he has spoken before 30,000 people at the University of Wisconsin, 15,000 at Ohio State University and 9,200 at the University of Miami.
But in 2008, to note one striking example, he drew an astonishing 100,000 people to a single rally in Denver in late October. And this year’s campaign audiences, like Obama himself, seem to vary in their enthusiasm.