Republicans reeling after third House loss

By DAVID ESPO - The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Stunned House Republicans vowed campaign changes Wednesday and debated the wisdom of attacking Democratic presidential front-runner Sen. Barack Obama in congressional races after their third straight election defeat in once-friendly territory.

“The political atmosphere ... is the worst since Watergate and far more toxic than the fall of 2006 when we lost 30 seats,” Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia wrote the leadership in a bluntly worded memo.

“Clearly, I think we’ve got to do a better job” going into the November elections, said the Republican leader, Rep. John Boehner, one day after Democrat Travis Childers won a Mississippi congressional victory. That seat had been in Republican hands since the 1994 landslide that swept the GOP into power.

Several lawmakers and aides said a change was possible but far from certain at the National Republican Congressional Committee, where Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole is chairman. Party leaders also said they were on the verge of distributing a campaign season manifesto to their rank and file setting out conservative positions on taxes and other issues.

Davis, a former campaign committee chairman who is retiring at the end of this year, noted that polls show Americans overwhelmingly believe the country is headed down the wrong track, President Bush is unpopular, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee enjoyed a cash advantage of $44 million to $7 million as of March 31.

Childers’ victory came one week after Rep. Don Cazayoux won a House seat in the Baton Rouge, La., area that had been in Republican hands for 30 years. Over the winter, Rep. Bill Foster, a Democrat, won an election in Illinois to succeed former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, who had been in Congress more than 20 years.

All three races were necessitated by incumbent Republicans’ resignations.

Childers and Cazayoux both ran as conservatives, but Republicans and their allies sought to link them to Obama in television commercials. In both cases, some Republicans said the tactic appeared to backfire, prompting black voters to turn out in unexpectedly large numbers and vote for the Democrats.

One-third of the population in the Louisiana district and one-quarter of the population in the Mississippi district are black.

“We’re not going to be able to scare people into voting Republican by being against Barack Obama. You have to have a relevant agenda and a compelling reason to vote Republican,” said Rep. Chip Pickering, R-Miss.

Cole, like other Republicans mulling the results, said the voters had sent Republicans a message that said, “We want to know what you believe in, what you want to fight for.”

In all three races, Republicans said the losses could be traced largely to local factors. They said the party was divided in Illinois, a weak candidate was on the ballot in Louisiana and regional differences hampered Davis in Mississippi.

At the same time, the cumulative effect of the loss of three seats in special elections was a significant blow to a party still adjusting to its loss of power in the 2006 midterm elections.

“They are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate,” Davis wrote in his memo.

Childers’ victory leaves Republicans with 199 seats, compared with 236 for the Democrats. Adding to the short-term GOP difficulties, Rep. Vito Fossella, R-N.Y., married with kids, is privately weighing his future after acknowledging recently that he fathered a child out of wedlock.