Hard to predict USC’s fortunes this season

THIS IS MY FIFTH SEASON of attempting to predict the fortunes of South Carolina football. Never has it been more difficult. USC could go 10-2 in the regular season. It could finish 6-6.

Generally, three factors play into the success or demise of a college football team: The team’s strength, the relative strength of the opposition and overall strength of the schedule. Successful teams, and those that win championships, usually are an outstanding team, are consistently better than the opposition and have a favorable schedule.

Let’s start with USC. No doubt, this is Steve Spurrier’s best club in three seasons at USC, but not for reasons you might expect. This team should be grounded on its defense, where nine starters return and a bevy of newcomers should get ample playing time.

A season ago, USC’s young defense had difficulty keeping the opposition’s offense off the field. Yet it seemed to play best when opponents reached the scoring zone. The defense limited No. 12-ranked Georgia to 18 points and eventual national champion Florida to 17.

The defense kept USC afloat while Spurrier’s offense struggled with a new quarterback, and a line that did not come together until the season’s 10th game. Expect the defense to be improved to the point of giving USC a chance to defeat any team on its schedule.

Questions remain on offense. Again, there is uncertainty on the line, and Kenny McKinley is the only proven receiver. You have to believe it will not take nearly as long to solve the line problems this season, and Spurrier never has had difficulty finding solid targets for his quarterback.

Spurrier will find a way for this offense to click, just as he did a season ago when he essentially scrapped his Cock ‘n’ Fire attack for his Syvelle and Scramble look. When it comes to offense, Spurrier always seems to have the answers. My guess is USC will be a ground-oriented team early on, and will use Cory Boyd and Mike Davis as receivers out of the backfield until its offensive line and receivers develop.

Will an improved defense and a developing offense be enough to win the SEC East? Spurrier picked the right season to announce his Gamecocks are prepared to challenge for the East championship because there is no dominant team in the division.

Tennessee should be the favorite, but not by much. Florida returns only two starters on defense. Georgia has major problems on defense. Kentucky is every bit as good as USC, and Vanderbilt could land its first bowl bid since 1982.

USC has proven over the past two seasons that it can play with the big three in the SEC, so beating Tennessee, Georgia and/or Florida is entirely possible. The improvement of Kentucky and Vanderbilt makes it equally possible that USC could lose to either.

That brings us to a schedule as difficult as any in the country. Games at Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Arkansas present a daunting task for USC. The reality is that USC finds itself on an every-other-year cycle of difficult road games vs. difficult home games.

The schedule alone makes me believe USC is a season away from challenging for the SEC East and a possible league championship. A year from now, USC will field one of the nation’s best defenses, and its offensive line and receiver questions will be answered. Getting Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Arkansas at home in 2008 will make a huge difference.

That said, there are four certain wins on this season’s schedule: Louisiana-Lafayette, South Carolina State, Mississippi State and North Carolina. There are two all-but-certain losses: LSU and Tennessee.

Of the other two road games, let’s call for a split because I believe this is the season USC finally defeats Georgia in Athens. That leaves the season’s final two games, and I can see a split with Florida and Clemson as well.

That leaves USC with an 8-4 record. Tack on a Peach Bowl victory against Florida State, and USC concludes with a highly successful season.

Listen to commentaries by Ron Morris weekdays at 8:05 a.m., 2:05 p.m. and 5:58 p.m. on WCOS-AM 1400.