Scenarios turn easy with a victory

FIRST OF ALL, South Carolina can push itself into a bowl game by defeating Clemson on Saturday. The Gamecocks would complete the regular season with a 7-5 record. Every team with that record last season played in a bowl game, and the same will happen this season.

In all likelihood, a USC win would pit the Gamecocks against Florida State in the Dec. 31 Music City Bowl in Nashville, Tenn.

Should USC lose, it gets a little more complicated. Before going into the chances of 6-6 teams reaching the postseason, let it be known that this USC team has no business playing in a bowl game with that record. No team that loses its final five games should be permitted to play in a bowl game.

Nevertheless, the most likely scenario would be for Eric Hyman, USC’s athletics director, to pull some strings, cash in on some old favors and slide the Gamecocks into the Dec. 31 Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl against Air Force in Fort Worth, Texas.

Again, going on the assumption that USC loses to Clemson on Saturday and finishes the regular season at 6-6, let’s examine the possibilities of USC getting a bowl bid. While we’re at it, let’s look at all the teams USC fans should pull for — or, more specifically, against — this weekend.

There are 32 bowl games this season, meaning 64 teams will be extended bids. A season ago, an NCAA rule dictated that no team with a 6-6 record could be invited to a bowl game over any 7-5 team.

That rule essentially guarantees that all teams 7-5 or better will play in a bowl game. Under those terms, we enter this weekend’s slate of games with 48 teams having already qualified for a bowl game.

That leaves 16 slots open. There remain 17 teams that could still win seven games, including, of course, USC. What will happen is that about half of those teams will fill about half of the remaining slots.

That is what happened last season. As a result, eight teams with 6-6 records played in 2006 bowl games. Another nine with 6-6 records were left home.

Let’s just suppose that the favored team wins the remaining games involving teams with 6-5 records. Let’s do the same with those three remaining teams (UCLA, Florida Atlantic and Nevada) with 5-5 records.

Based solely on the favored teams winning, 11 teams would get to seven wins. In addition to pulling for USC to defeat Clemson, Gamecock fans should pull for the following 6-win teams to lose: East Carolina (to Tulane), Memphis (to SMU), Southern Mississippi (to Arkansas State), Miami of Ohio (to Ohio), Central Michigan (to Akron), Ball State (to Northern Illinois), TCU (to San Diego State), California (to Stanford), Mississippi State (to Mississippi), Fresno State (to both Kansas State and New Mexico State) and Nevada (to either San Jose State or Louisiana Tech).

Using that same favored-team scenario, the following 6-5 teams should lose and finish with six wins: Oklahoma State (vs. Oklahoma), Texas A&M (vs. Texas), UCLA (vs. Oregon and Southern California), Alabama (vs. Auburn) and Florida Atlantic (vs. Florida International and Troy).

So, USC fans should be pulling for 11 upsets and five favorites.

Unfortunately, it does not end there. There is yet another group of 14 teams that enter this weekend with 5-6 records. So, USC should pull for the following teams to lose and fall short of six wins: N.C. State, Maryland, Miami, Colorado, Kansas State, Nebraska, Louisville, Ohio, Toledo, Wyoming, Arizona, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana Tech.

Again, the likelihood is that seven-win teams will fill about half of the remaining 16 bowl slots. The same likelihood is that there will be about 20 teams with 6-6 records fighting — actually bidding behind the scenes — for the remaining eight or so bowl slots.

If USC finds itself in that position, Hyman might be able to pull off a bid. But the fact is USC is not a very appealing postseason team with a 6-6 record. Its fan base is not likely to travel in great numbers to a distant bowl, and the appeal of a Steve Spurrier-coached team has probably faded some.

USC would likely lose out in a bidding war against other programs with a thirst for a bowl game, teams such as N.C. State, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Louisville, Vanderbilt or Mississippi State.

If you do not like any of those prospects for USC, just pull for the Gamecocks to defeat Clemson. That solves all of USC’s bowl problems.