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Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2007

Winthrop/ETV poll results, Nov. 1

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AMONG Likely republican Primary Voters

If the Republican presidential primary election were held today, which of these candidates would you vote for? [names rotated]

Sam Brownback*	0.2
Rudy Giuliani	16.5
Mike Huckabee	5.4
Duncan Hunter	0.8
John McCain	9.2
Ron Paul	2.1
Mitt Romney	16.5
Tom Tancredo	0.6
Fred Thompson	17.9
Undecided/ Not Sure	29.9
Refused	1
*Brownback's name was removed when he officially withdrew from the race

Do the spouses of the Republican presidential candidates have any impact on how you will decide to cast your vote in the Republican primary?

Yes	14.8
No	80
Not sure	5.2
Refused	0

Do you think the Republican Party should make a special effort to reach out to minority voters such as blacks and Hispanics?

Yes	66.4
No	26.1
Not sure	6.9
Refused	0.6

Do you think the Republican Party is currently doing enough to reach out to minority voters? [asked ONLY of those who said the Republican Party should make special effort to reach out]

Yes	25.1
No	47
Not sure	28
Refused	0

AMONG Likely DEMOCRATIC Primary Voters

If the Democratic presidential primary election were held today, which of these candidates would you vote for? [names rotated]

Joe Biden	2.4
Hillary Clinton	33
Christopher Dodd	0.4
John Edwards	9.6
Mike Gravel	0
Dennis Kucinich	0
Barack Obama	22.7
Bill Richardson	0.4
Undecided/ Not sure	29.6
Refused	2.1

Do the spouses of the Democratic presidential candidates have any impact on how you will decide to cast your vote in the Democratic primary?

Yes	24
No	71.2
Not sure	4.9
Refused	0

Questions Asked Of Both Parties

How closely have you been following the presidential nominations for the

	Democrats	Republicans
Very closely	30.8	27.5
Somewhat closely	45.5	48.4
Not very closely	17.7	21.5
Not at all closely	5.8	2.5
Refused	0.2	0

Have you actually met or seen any of the candidates in person during the campaign?

	Democrats	Republicans
Yes	13.2	12.4
No	86.8	87.6

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is doing his job as president?

	Democrats	Republicans
Approve	7.9	62
Disapprove	87.9	23.4
Not sure	3.4	12.8
Refused	0.8	1.7

Which of the following qualities is most important to you in selecting the candidate for whom you will vote?

	Democrats	Republicans
Experience	13.8	10.1
Knowledge/Intelligence	17.8	9.5
Honesty	36.4	34.1
Diplomatic skills	6.4	3.3
Holds positions similar to yours	4.7	7.6
Exhibits values similar to yours	12.3	26.4
Not sure	8.1	9.1
Refused	0.4	0

What is the one issue that you would most like to hear the candidates for president discuss?

	Democrats	Republicans
Iraq	30.8	16.4
Terrorism	0.4	3.1
Economy	8.3	8.4
International trade	0.6	0.4
Deficit	1.3	1
Crime	0.2	0.2
Healthcare	24.8	7.6
Social Security	4.2	2.3
Environment	0.8	1
Homosexuality/ same sex marriage	1.1	0.6
Unemployment	2.5	0.4
Taxes	1.9	6.7
Price of gas	0.6	0.2
Dependence on foreign oil	0	0.4
Energy issues	0.2	0.6
Illegal immigration	4	18.2
Poverty	0.8	0.2
Welfare	1.1	0.8
Afghanistan	0	0.2
Immorality in country - lack of religion	0.2	2.3
Security/ Protecting us from terrorism	0.6	7.8
Education	2.8	1.4
Couldn't think of one	5.7	6.1
Other	6.8	13.5
Refused	0.2	0.2

Some national polls have shown Rudolph Giuliani and Hillary Clinton leading their respective races. If Giuliani and Clinton win the nominations of their parties, which one would you vote for?

	Democrats	Republicans
Giuliani	7.6	80.4
Clinton	79.4	5.1
Neither	4	9.6
Wouldn't vote	0.9	1.6
Not sure	6.6	3.1
Refused	1.5	0.2

Did you vote for George W. Bush over John Kerry in 2004?

	Democrats	Republicans
Yes	14.6	93.7
No	82.2	4.7
Don't remember	1.1	0.2
Didn't vote in 2004	1.3	0.6
Refused	0.8	0.8

If you could go back to 2004 would you change your vote for president? [asked ONLY of those who voted for Bush in 2004]

	Democrats	Republicans
Yes	33.8	6.7
No	62.3	91.9
Not sure	3.9	1.5
Refused	0	0

How much does the Vice Presidential candidate matter when you are deciding who to vote for? Does it matter a great deal, somewhat, or not at all?

	Democrats	Republicans
Great deal	37.8	23.9
Somewhat	41.8	54.6
Not at all	17	21.1
Not sure	3.4	0.2
Refused	0	0.2

Would you ever choose to vote against your preferred presidential candidate because you disliked the Vice Presidential candidate so much?

	Democrats	Republicans
Yes	18	19.4
No	72.2	73.6
Not sure	9.5	7
Refused	0.4	0

Would having a Southerner as a Vice Presidential candidate make you more likely, less likely, or neither more nor less likely to vote for a particular Presidential candidate?

	Democrats	Republicans
More	14.7	14.9
Less	6.2	4.3
Neither	74.1	77.1
Not sure	4.9	3.1
Refused	0	0.6

Do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush's handling of the war in Iraq?

	Democrats	Republicans
Approve	5.3	59.1
Disapprove	89.4	30.7
Not sure	4.4	9.6
Refused	0.9	0.6

Do you feel that we should set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq?

	Democrats	Republicans
Yes	75.9	25.3
No	15.2	68.6
Not sure	8.3	5.5
Refused	0.6	0.6

Which of the following do you consider the most reasonable amount of time to complete a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq: [asked ONLY of those who think we should set timetable for withdrawal]

	Democrats	Republicans
Six months	49.1	20.8
One year	32.4	36.2
Two years	9.2	20.8
Longer than two years	2.5	9.2
Not sure [volunteered]	6.5	13.1
Refused	0.2	0

Do you believe that the war in Iraq has made America safer or created additional threats to our security?

	Democrats	Republicans
Safer	10.2	63.7
Additional threats	77.9	22.2
Neither [only if volunteered]	4.2	6.7
Not sure [only if volunteered]	7.6	6.9
Refused	0.2	0.6

Do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush's handling of the war in Afghanistan?

	Democrats	Republicans
Approve	14	69.9
Disapprove	75	16.1
Not sure	9.6	13.1
Refused	1.3	1.2

We'd like to get your thoughts on Global Warming. Which of the following statements comes closest to your beliefs:

	Democrats	Republicans
Global warming is real and is occurring now	70.8	36.9
Global warming is real but won't be a problem for a long time	8.7	12.2
The effects of global warming are being exaggerated	6.8	38.5
Global warming is not real	2.7	6.9
Not sure [volunteered]	10.2	5.1
Refused [volunteered]	0.8	0.4

Which statement comes closest to your opinion on illegal immigration:

	Democrats	Republicans
Immigrants who do not currently have legal status should be allowed to pay a fine and stay in the US while they apply for citizenship	38.4	25.5
Immigrants who do not currently have legal status should be immediately deported	43.2	61.6
Not sure	16.9	12.2
Refused	1.5	0.8

Some people believe that building a fence along much of the Mexican border would be an effective way to combat illegal immigration, others disagree. How about you? Do you agree or disagree? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

	Democrats	Republicans
Strongly agree	13.2	25.7
Somewhat agree	15.3	23.7
Somewhat disagree	20.8	13.1
Strongly disagree	42.5	29.8
Not sure	7.8	7.3
Refused	0.4	0.4

Economically, do you feel that you are better off, worse off, or in about the same position you were in four years ago?

	Democrats	Republicans
Better	17.6	46
Worse	44.6	12
Same	35.9	40.5
Not sure	1.9	1.2
Refused	0	0.4

Crosstab: Economic Attitude by Yearly Household Income

Economically, do you feel that you are better off, worse off, or in about the same position you were in four years ago?

	$50k/year and under	Over $50k/year
Better	20	42.7
Worse	37	21.2
Same	41.3	35.2
Not sure	1.7	0.6
Refused	0	0.2

How important would you say religion is in your own life: Very important, fairly important, or not very important?

	Democrats	Republicans
Very important	74.7	78.2
Fairly important	15.1	12.5
Not very important	9.5	8.2
Not sure	0.4	0.6
Refused	0.4	0.4