This week, the streets of midtown Manhattan are again swarming with TV executives trying to woo ad buyers to their upcoming fall lineups with splashy presentations, star-packed cocktail parties and plentiful swag.
But there’s an air of urgency for the suits at the legacy networks — CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox. They’ve been rocked by an ominous first: A basic cable program — AMC’s zombie apocalypse drama “The Walking Dead” — outperformed every scripted show on television this season in the advertiser-coveted 18- to 49-year-old demographic.
And zombies are the least of it. Competition is closing in from every corner and on every device. DVRs are frustrating advertisers by allowing viewers to skip ads. Netflix, Amazon and a host of online Web services are producing original fare. Aereo, mogul Barry Diller’s new service that allows broadcast signals to be watched on hand-held devices, poses another threat that the networks are trying to extinguish with litigation.
In this environment, TV executives at the annual upfronts that started Monday must pitch their new shows after a season most notable for its failure to produce a single hit. Not surprisingly, most analysts expect tepid advance sales for prime-time commercials, with possibly zero growth over last year’s $9.2 billion. Meanwhile, analysts predict cable’s share of the pie will continue to grow, up as much as 7 percent, to an estimated $10 billion.
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“I don’t think it’s an exaggeration at all to say this season was a tipping point,” said Matti Leshem, chief executive of the brand strategy company Protagonist. “If I were a network executive right now, I’d be very nervous, because we have finally reached a point where everyone is questioning the efficacy of television as a medium for reaching audiences, which is really what this is all about.”
What can the networks do? Some expect broadcasters to borrow from basic cable’s playbook next season to help reverse their sagging fortunes.
Like cable, the broadcast networks may experiment more with shortened seasons, down to a number where creative quality is easier to maintain. Also, as with cable, the networks may turn more toward a format that they abandoned years ago — the miniseries, which has brought cable record-setting numbers with productions such as “Hatfields & McCoys” and “The Bible.”
The greater pressure, however, is to generate a breakout prime-time program on the new fall lineups — something the networks were unable to do this season despite dozens of attempts with dramas, comedies and reality shows. In the fall, NBC seemed to have a bona fide sensation going with the freshman post-apocalyptic drama “Revolution,” but after a four-month hiatus, ratings slid more than 40 percent from the premiere.
“It’s very simple,” said Brad Adgate, an analyst with the ad firm Horizon Media. “They need to get a hit show and schedule it right.”
The forces seem to be making the networks more conservative in their program development. The days of swinging for the fences are over. Executives seem more content to renew familiar shows, even ones with anemic ratings, rather than take a flier on risky new concepts.
Thus, modestly performing series such as NBC’s “Parenthood,” CBS’ “The Good Wife” and Fox’s “The Mindy Project” have already gotten nods for this fall.
Most of the new program announcements, including new shows, time slots and cancellations, will be made this week at individual presentations to ad buyers by the four legacy networks. But some details began coming out last week.
By Friday, Fox and NBC executives had already announced their selections for more than a dozen shows for next season. With few exceptions, the dramas and comedies were set on familiar territory — cops, lawyers and families. NBC will post the crime drama “The Blacklist” with James Spader at 10 p.m. EDT Mondays, while a remake of the 1970s detective show “Ironside” will run on Wednesdays. NBC’s Thursdays will be oriented around family-themed comedies with sitcom veterans Michael J. Fox and Sean Hayes.