The tightening continues as Trump gains on Clinton

The State newspaper is taking a week-by-week look at the polling and Electoral College projections in the presidential race. Numbers will be updated each week until Election Day on Nov. 8.

The road to the White House continues to get more narrow the closer to Election Day we get.

Hillary Clinton’s lead in national polls steadily has decreased, even as most projections still give her an edge in the Electoral College race.

Democrat Clinton continues to be dogged by questions about her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, including questions at a national security forum this week where she shared the stage with her GOP rival, Donald Trump.

Trump also raised some eyebrows at the event by claiming he would fire America’s generals and, unnerving even some Republicans, praising Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The most recent changes in the map don’t factor in Clinton’s weekend missteps, telling a fundraiser that half of Trump supporters fit into a racist, sexist “basket of deplorables,” and then publicly struggling with a pneumonia diagnosis at Sunday’s Sept. 11 memorial in New York.

It was an active week for the race’s third-party candidates as well.

Libertarian Gary Johnson made headlines when he appeared unfamiliar with the city at the heart of Syria’s civil war, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein had a warrant issued for her arrest after a protest against a North Dakota oil pipeline.

National polls tightening

In the Real Clear Politics national average, Clinton’s lead has shrunk to 3 percentage points. Polls that showed the Democratic candidate with a 5- or 6-point lead only a few weeks ago now register national leads of just 1 or 2 points for Clinton, although there were some outliers. The ABC News/Washington Post poll gave Clinton an 8-point lead nationwide, while the LA Times/University of Southern California poll – which has tended to be more competitive for Trump than other polls – showed the race tied.

In a four-way polling average, Johnson is drawing 9.1 percent of voters, reducing Clinton’s vote total by 4.1 percent and Trump’s by 3.3 percent, and dropping Clinton’s national lead to just 2.2 points. Stein is in fourth place with the support of 2.9 percent of voters.

Electoral shifts mixed

The changes in Real Clear’s electoral map all happened in Clinton’s backyard this week, and it was a mixed bag.

Rhode Island shifted from “safe Clinton” to “likely Clinton” based on an Emerson Poll that gave Clinton 44 percent of the vote and Trump 41 percent. Meanwhile, Connecticut shifted the other way, from “leans Clinton” to “likely Clinton” after another Emerson poll gave Clinton a 15-point lead in the Nutmeg State. Prognosticators also moved New Hampshire into the toss-up category – from Clinton’s camp – after an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll gave Clinton a one-point lead in the state.

Bigger states like Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin remain in the “toss-up” category, as Real Clear projects Clinton is assured of 225 electoral votes to Trump’s 154.

But the map is mostly the same

But the toss-up assignments were unaffected, with one big exception.

Real Clear flipped Florida, and its 29 electoral votes, from Clinton to Trump.

The switch still leaves Clinton with a big lead of 311 electoral votes — 41 more than the 270 required — to Trump’s 227 in Real Clear’s no toss-up map, down from 340 when the Democrat was carrying the Sunshine State.

FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 70.6 percent chance of winning in November, a not insubstantial lead but still less than the Democrat could be assured of previously. Clinton was at 80.9 just two weeks ago, and Trump has rallied from a low of 10.8 percent on Aug. 9 to 29.3 percent now.

The site still gives Clinton a 58.9 percent chance of carrying Florida.

FiveThirtyEight’s more analytical “polls-plus” forecast drops Clinton’s chances to 68.8 percent and flips Iowa and North Carolina to Trump’s column. If the election were held today, the “nowcast” boosts Clinton’s chances of winning to 74.7 percent and puts both swing states back in Clinton’s column.

The projection site also projects Clinton to win 340 votes in the Electoral College to Trump’s 198.

This story was originally published September 12, 2016 at 7:52 AM with the headline "The tightening continues as Trump gains on Clinton."