Clinton, Giuliani lead in S.C., poll says

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani lead the races for the 2008 S.C. Democratic and Republican primaries, according to a new poll from Winthrop University and ETV.

Clinton, a U.S. senator from New York, has an almost 10-percentage-point lead over her closest Democratic competitor, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. However, former New York Mayor Giuliani is in a much closer fight among Republicans.

Still, many Democratic and Republican voters remain uncommitted seven months before the first 2008 ballot is cast in South Carolina. The poll found that about 30 percent of voters in each party - and a similar percentage of independents - remain undecided.

The poll also showed Giuliani has more reason for concern. His lead over U.S. Sen. John McCaincq of Arizona - 18.6 percent to 14.4 percent - is within the poll’s margin of error.

Independents are fractured and far from settled on a champion.

Among independents, Giuliani gets the support of 12.3 percent, followed by 11 percent for Clinton and 10.5 percent for S.C. native John Edwards. McCain, the darling of independents during his 2000 presidential bid, gets the support of 9.1 percent of independents.

As for the front-runners, the poll shows Clinton dominates Edwards’ native state, a state where her campaign organization is dwarfed by those of candidates with a fraction of her polling percentage.

And Giuliani, whether he’s in first or behind McCain - uncertain given the margin of error - remains in shouting distance of victory in a state where many Republican voters would fall opposite him on social issues.

Reach Gould Sheinin at (803) 771-8658.

About the poll

The methodology behindthe Winthrop/ETV poll Winthrop University’s Social and Behavioral Research Lab, in partnership with ETV, conducted the telephone poll of 670 randomly selected, registered S.C. voters from May 16-27.

The sample was 82 percent white, 17 percent non-white.

Fifty-six percent of the sample was female, 44 percent male.

The breakdown of the sample by party was: 39.8 percent Republican; 25.1 percent Democrat; 32.7 percent independent.

The margin of error ranges from plus or minus 3.79 percent to 6.01 percent.

Why the range? The size of the group involved in answering each question.

Consider this example: Of all S.C. voters who responded, 53.4 percent said the war in Iraq is the most important issue facing the country. That result has a margin of error of only 3.79 percent because of the 670 people surveyed, meaning as few as 49.61 percent of the sample or as much as 57.19 percent could believe the war is the most important issue.

However, the survey also found 61.9 percent of Democrats and 50.8 percent of Republicans named the war as most important. But each of those results came from groups smaller than the 670 surveyed, giving a higher margin of error — 6.01 percent, meaning as few as 55.89 percent or as many as 67.91 percent of Democrats believe the war is the most important issue.

Calls were placed between 4 and 9 p.m. Mondays through Fridays; 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. Saturdays; and 1 to 8 p.m. Sundays. n The poll is the first of four surveys of South Carolinians that Winthrop and ETV will conduct over the next year.