Giuliani a surprise hit in S.C.

New Yorker among leaders in S.C. poll

By JOHN O’CONNOR - joconnor@thestate.com

Rudy Giuliani was not supposed to compete in South Carolina.

The New York Yankee, pundits said, could not overcome his stances favoring gay rights, abortion or gun control. Social conservatives, they said, would torpedo him in the Palmetto State.

But with less than three months to go before South Carolina’s Republican primary, fresh polling shows Giuliani is in a statistical tie for first place with fellow GOP front-runners, former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Giuliani has been running at the front of the pack since entering the race last November, according to a number of polls. His ability to remain among the front-runners in the Palmetto State is a sign of the former New York City mayor’s broad support, said campaign spokesman Elliott Bundy. “The campaign has shown remarkable consistency in polls throughout the campaign.”

Giuliani has touted his leadership experience, pro-business policies, and support of the war on terror and strong national security. Giuliani also has cast himself as the Republican who can beat Democratic front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton, a fellow New Yorker.

Giuliani also has proven he can raise money, even in South Carolina.

Giuliani leads all Republican candidates in individual donations, according to a Center for Responsive Politics analysis. And, with $16.7 million in his campaign war chest, Giuliani has $7 million more on hand than any other candidate.

An analysis by The State showed Giuliani raised more money in South Carolina last quarter than any other candidate.

That means Giuliani can afford to hit the airwaves in South Carolina.

“(Most of) the other candidates simply haven’t been putting the money into media yet,” said College of Charleston political scientist Bill Moore. Giuliani and Thompson, he said, “have the upside” to win over more voters.

But some also see troubling signs for Giuliani. Though Giuliani is among the leaders, newcomer Thompson is running stronger and Romney has gained ground, partially due to television advertising.

Giuliani, said Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard, could be at his high-water mark in the Palmetto State.

Woodard’s polling shows a significant portion of GOP voters think unfavorably of Giuliani and social conservatives are skeptical.

“There’s going to be a lot of independent groups that are going to fill up South Carolina voters’ minds on social issues,” Woodard said. “They’re going to really rattle the tree here.

“I really think he’s going to take a real dive here.”

Woodard and Moore said South Carolina is not a must-win primary for Giuliani. Bundy said the campaign is focused on all 50 states, campaigning in Florida, California and other large states.

However, Bundy dismissed the idea that S.C. voters do not know where Giuliani stands.

“He’s been running for a year,” Bundy said. “People are very aware of where he stands and that’s why he’s doing well.”

West Columbia resident Claudette Lorick, a Republican who supports Giuliani, said her top three issues are winning the Iraq war, stopping illegal immigration and expanding access to health care.

But, most of all, Lorick said she favors Giuliani because she sees in him the one candidate with the steel to make hard decisions.

“Once ... the debating really begins,” Lorick said, “I think he’ll hold his own.”

Reach O’Connor at (803) 771-8358.