Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2008

Analysis | Florida makes McCain the front-runner

WASHINGTON — John McCain emerged from Florida on Tuesday as the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, poised to complete a remarkable comeback after being written off as politically dead.

The Arizona senator still faces competition from former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and their clash could remain bitter, with Romney ready to write more personal checks to keep the campaign going. A wing of the party that loathes McCain could rally to Romney as the last best chance to stop their maverick nemesis.

But McCain’s victory in Florida’s primary firmly established him as the favorite headed into a 21-state, coast-to-coast showdown Feb. 5 and to go on to win the party nod.

McCain took the lead for the first time in delegates needed to win the nomination at next summer’s Republican National Convention.

But McCain’s real edge is how he stands headed into the contests next Tuesday, when more than 1,000 delegates will be awarded, many in winner-take-all states. Winning many of those states would put a candidate well on the way to the 1,191 needed to win the nomination.

He can claim the advantage thanks to factors Florida made clear:

• His strong appeal to security-minded voters

• His ability to blunt Romney’s pitch on pocketbook concerns

• A calendar of big states where McCain has the advantage

• The defeat of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and McCain’s likely edge in winning over Giuliani’s supporters. Giuliani was preparing to drop out and endorse McCain today, according to several reports.

Giuliani, who once led in national polls and raised top-tier cash, bet it all on an unusual strategy that amounted to retreat.

But while he camped out in sunny Florida, his rivals grabbed delegates and headlines in the first contests. Starved of victories, his money dried up. Starved of headlines, he had no free media coverage. His support dried up.

All of it comes just months after McCain appeared to be finished, his second shot at the presidency slipping away. His support in polls dropped, his fundraising was abysmal, and he had to lay off campaign staff.

But he came back, thanks in large part to the apparent military success of the surge of additional troops to Iraq, something he had pushed at political risk.

Romney tried to take advantage of the rising concerns about the economy, pitching his background as a business executive and reminding voters that McCain — more than once — has told reporters he doesn’t understand the economy as well as he does foreign policy.

McCain played hard to security-minded voters, his strength. But he also stressed his newfound commitment to the Bush tax cuts (he opposed them in Congress) and to curbing spending.

The economy dominated the Florida vote — named in exit polls by four out of 10 as voters’ top concern — and economy voters split almost evenly between McCain and Romney.

McCain leads in several delegate-rich states, including Arizona, California, and Illinois. He’s also well ahead of Romney in Connecticut, New Jersey and New York.

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