Obama still tops N.C. polls, but Clinton closing gap

By ROB CHRISTENSEN - McClatchy Newspapers

APEX, N.C. — North Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary is tightening, with Sen. Barack Obama’s struggles in distancing himself from his controversial former pastor apparently eroding his once-formidable lead here.

The Tar Heel state was once seen as Obama’s to lose. But three public opinion polls conducted in recent days suggest that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has been closing the gap.

The Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling has found that Obama’s onetime lead of 25 points has decreased to 12. A SurveyUSA poll found Obama’s 9-point lead down to 5 points, while Rasmussen’s poll has Obama’s lead dropping from 23 to 14 points.

Most of Obama’s loss of support has been among white voters. Pollster Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling attributes the drop to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, as well as campaign visits by both Hillary and Bill Clinton in recent days.

The surveys were taken before North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley endorsed Clinton on Tuesday, and before Obama repudiated Wright the same day in Winston-Salem, N.C.

Kerry Haynie, a political scientist at Duke University, said that Obama’s white support began to drop among working-class whites in earlier primary states such as Pennsylvania, before the latest flareup of the Wright controversy.

“I think he has been damaged by all of this,” said Haynie. “The (Wright) flareup exacerbated the trend already there. Democratic candidates who reach out to black voters tend to lose support among some white constituencies.”

“It’s a race-related explanation for that trend,” Haynie said. “The more Obama becomes a black candidate or the candidate of blacks, the more support that we see falling off among some segments of the white population.”

Penny Faulkner, a 58-year old Apex nurse, said that Obama’s denunciation of Wright, coming this late, will be seen by many as a political move.

“He’s been his spiritual adviser for 20 years,” said Faulkner, a Clinton backer. “You can’t decide that something is wrong or right depending on whether you are running for office.”

Obama’s aura of inevitablity has diminished in the wake of his loss in Pennsylvania and the furor over his former pastor, according to a New York Times/CBS poll.

The survey found that Obama is now perceived to be in a much tighter fight with Clinton. Fifty-one percent of Democratic primary voters say they expect Obama to be the nominee, down from 69 percent a month ago.

U.S. Rep. G.K Butterfield of Wilson, an Obama leader in North Carolina, said that Obama has been hurt by the Wright controversy. But he also said it was natural that the North Carolina primary would become more closely contested.

“That’s typical in this kind of race,” Butterfield said. “We didn’t accept the double-digit lead of a couple of weeks ago. People are beginning to settle down and look at the race and make final choices.”

“I think it will be a single-digit win,” Butterfield said. “I believe Obama will win.”

Ace Smith, the state Clinton campaign director, said Clinton still faces an uphill race in North Carolina. “The fact of the matter is, as recently as a week ago, he was up 25 points,” Smith said. “Everyone would agree that the race is moving — very good from our standpoint.”