For voters, Clinton's husband both a help and a hindrance

By AARON GOULD SHEININ - asheinin@thestate.com

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Hillary Clinton has the lead in South Carolina, but dangers abound for the former first lady in a state with doubts about her electability and her husband's likeability, according to a Winthrop/ETV poll released Thursday.

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, DIll., remains solidly in second place, about 9 percentage points behind Clinton.

Meanwhile, S.C. native John Edwards is barely in double digits, nearly 20 percentage points behind Clinton, in third place. While nearly 3 in 10 Democratic registered voters say they'll choose Clinton in the 2008 presidential primary, the U.S. senator from New York has problems of her own:

ABOUT THE POLL
The methodology behind the Winthrop/ETV poll
Winthrop University's Social and Behavioral Research Lab, in partnership with ETV, conducted the telephone poll of 670 randomly selected, registered S.C. voters from May 16-27.
The sample was 82 percent white, 17 percent non-white.
Fifty-six percent of the sample was female, 44 percent male.
The breakdown of the sample by party was: 39.8 percent Republican; 25.1 percent Democrat; 32.7 percent independent.
The margin of error ranges from plus or minus 3.79 percent to 6.01 percent. Why the range? The size of the group involved in answering each question. Consider this example:
Of all S.C. voters who responded, 53.4 percent said the war in Iraq is the most important issue facing the country. That result has a margin of error of only 3.79 percent because of the 670 people surveyed, meaning as few as 49.61 percent of the sample or as much as 57.19 percent could believe the war is the most important issue. However, the survey also found 61.9 percent of Democrats and 50.8 percent of Republicans named the war as most important. But each of those results came from groups smaller than the 670 surveyed, giving a higher margin of error -- 6.01 percent, meaning as few as 55.89 percent or as many as 67.91 percent of Democrats believe the war is the most important issue.
Calls were placed between 4 and 9 p.m. Mondays through Fridays; 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. Saturdays; and 1 to 8 p.m. Sundays.
The poll is the first of four surveys of South Carolinians that Winthrop and ETV will conduct over the next year.

Forty-eight percent of independents, and more than 22 percent of Democrats, say Clinton might be too controversial to be elected president.

Democrats regained control of Congress in 2006 and enter the 2008 presidential campaign with confidence. But Democratic voters ultimately might shy away from a candidate they don't believe can win in November. And the impact of independent voters can't be discounted. Independents make up a third of the S.C. electorate, according to the poll, and those voters can choose to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary in early 2008.

While her husband, former Democratic president Bill Clinton, remains hugely popular among Democrats, independents are far less enamored.

Forty-two percent of independents say they think Bill Clinton would not make a good "first husband," compared to 43 percent who said he would.

Yet it's Bill Clinton who has led some, such as 91-year-old Pernell Smith of Lancaster, to support Hillary Clinton.

"I just liked her husband," he said, "and I thought she would be a president like he was."

State Sen. Robert Ford, DCharleston, who has endorsed Clinton, said the former president, who spoke to the S.C. NAACP on May 18, is an asset here.

Ford said Clinton's campaign has been focused the past few weeks on building a network of volunteers across the state.

"If she has a lead, that has something to do with it," Ford said. "But the Bill Clinton visit is a major boost."

Ford also said he's not concerned about voters who say Hillary Clinton is too controversial. "It's early, and I'm sure they're going to change their mind once she's the nominee."

The fact that Edwards was born in Seneca, in South Carolina's Upstate, might not help him much. According to the poll, 17 percent of Democrats said they are more likely to vote for Edwards because he was born here. More than 70 percent said the opposite.

Edwards' campaign is not overly concerned.

"John Edwards won South Carolina in 2004 and will win it again this time," said Edwards spokeswoman Colleen Murray.

Beyond the top three candidates, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was at 1.8 percent -- the only other Democratic candidate above 1 percent.

But, with 30 percent of Democratic voters and almost as many independents undecided, the campaign of another candidate, U.S. Sen.

Chris Dodd, DConn., said it's far too early to discount anyone.

"We're not denying that the household names right now are Obama and Clinton and Edwards," said Ashley Cooper, Dodd's S.C. director.

The race is unlikely to change until "late fall," Cooper said. "We're not going to make a surge here in August or even September. I think you can see a sudden and quick shift."

Reach Gould Sheinin at (803) 771-8658.