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Choosing a President

Posted on Fri, Jun. 01, 2007

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CAMPAIGN 2008: THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Within Giuliani's slim lead, time bombs may be ticking

By AARON GOULD SHEININ - asheinin@thestate.com

ABOUT THE POLL

The methodology behind the Winthrop/ETV poll

Winthrop University's Social and Behavioral Research Lab, in partnership with ETV, conducted the telephone poll of 670 randomly selected, registered S.C. voters from May 16-27.

The sample was 82 percent white, 17 percent non-white.

Fifty-six percent of the sample was female, 44 percent male.

The breakdown of the sample by party was: 39.8 percent Republican; 25.1 percent Democrat; 32.7 percent independent.

The margin of error ranges from plus or minus 3.79 percent to 6.01 percent. Why the range? The size of the group involved in answering each question. Consider this example:

Of all S.C. voters who responded, 53.4 percent said the war in Iraq is the most important issue facing the country. That result has a margin of error of only 3.79 percent because of the 670 people surveyed, meaning as few as 49.61 percent of the sample or as much as 57.19 percent could believe the war is the most important issue. However, the survey also found 61.9 percent of Democrats and 50.8 percent of Republicans named the war as most important. But each of those results came from groups smaller than the 670 surveyed, giving a higher margin of error -- 6.01 percent, meaning as few as 55.89 percent or as many as 67.91 percent of Democrats believe the war is the most important issue.

Calls were placed between 4 and 9 p.m. Mondays through Fridays; 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. Saturdays; and 1 to 8 p.m. Sundays.

The poll is the first of four surveys of South Carolinians that Winthrop and ETV will conduct over the next year.

Rudy Giuliani's campaign is not declaring victory based on his lead in the Winthrop University/ ETV poll. Buried within the numbers giving Giuliani an early lead are potential land mines.

The former New York City mayor holds a 4-point lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and is about 7 percentage points ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

While Giuliani's name is at the top of the list for self-identified GOP voters, the poll also found:

More than 44 percent of S.C. Republicans said "finding out a candidate has had multiple divorces would make me less likely to support that candidate." Giuliani is on his third marriage.

Sixty-two percent of S.C. Republicans say they are "pro-life." Giuliani supports a woman's right to choose an abortion.

More than 50 percent of S.C. Republicans polled agreed they would have "trouble voting for a candidate whose views on abortion were different than mine." That makes Giuliani's position on abortion a potential flashpoint for him with Republican voters.

Still, Giuliani's stance on abortion is not a liability with all voters.

Sara Graves, a 36-year-old legal secretary in Charleston County and a Republican, said she considers herself pro-choice. Graves said she is torn between McCain and Giuliani but appreciates Giuliani's frankness.

"Giuliani is a lot more like my own personal heroes, Dick Cheney and Ronald Reagan," Graves said. "They tell you the truth, whether it's nice or not."

Giuliani spokesman Elliott Bundy said the former mayor's position on abortion is clear: It's only one issue among many.

"The mayor has been saying ..... there are many pressing issues facing the country and voters are going to evaluate each candidate on an overall package on how that person is best equipped to lead," Bundy said.

As for the poll results showing Giuliani in the lead, Bundy said there are miles to go before a winner is declared in the state's GOP primary, tentatively set for February.

"The race in the state is very competitive," Bundy said. "Polls are likely to fluctuate throughout the campaign, but we feel very good about our positioning."

The poll offers other candidates the chance to feel good.Twenty-nine percent of GOP voters said they were undecided. The same percentage of

independents, who make up a third of the overall S.C. electorate and who can vote in the GOP primary, also were undecided.

The Romney camp also can take cheer that the poll is one of the first to show their candidate in double digits in South Carolina.

"We are slowly building a campaign from the base up," Romney's S.C. director, Terry Sullivan, said. "We're not going to rocket into first place."

A McCain spokesman said any poll is just a snapshot, predicting the senator's S.C. organization eventually will carry the day.

"There will be many polls over the next several months, but there is no doubt that Senator McCain has the strongest, most organized effort in the state," McCain spokesman Adam Temple said.

Yet S.C. voters are unsure about McCain's support of President Bush's Iraq war policies. A third of S.C. Republicans said they think McCain's support for Bush has hurt his campaign. Among independents that number jumps to 46 percent.

McCain spokesman Temple was undeterred, saying South Carolinians understand what is at stake in Iraq.

"John McCain believes we need to give the new strategy in Iraq a chance to succeed. Americans want a president who is willing to take on tough issues and Senator McCain is that individual."

Reach Gould Sheinin at (803) 771-8658.