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Within Giuliani's slim lead, time bombs may be ticking
By AARON GOULD SHEININasheinin@thestate.com
Rudy Giuliani's campaign is not declaring victory based on his lead in the Winthrop University/ ETV poll. Buried within the numbers giving Giuliani an early lead are potential land mines.
The former New York City mayor holds a 4-point lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and is about 7 percentage points ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
While Giuliani's name is at the top of the list for self-identified GOP voters, the poll also found:
Still, Giuliani's stance on abortion is not a liability with all voters.
Sara Graves, a 36-year-old legal secretary in Charleston County and a Republican, said she considers herself pro-choice. Graves said she is torn between McCain and Giuliani but appreciates Giuliani's frankness.
"Giuliani is a lot more like my own personal heroes, Dick Cheney and Ronald Reagan," Graves said. "They tell you the truth, whether it's nice or not."
Giuliani spokesman Elliott Bundy said the former mayor's position on abortion is clear: It's only one issue among many.
"The mayor has been saying ..... there are many pressing issues facing the country and voters are going to evaluate each candidate on an overall package on how that person is best equipped to lead," Bundy said.
As for the poll results showing Giuliani in the lead, Bundy said there are miles to go before a winner is declared in the state's GOP primary, tentatively set for February.
"The race in the state is very competitive," Bundy said. "Polls are likely to fluctuate throughout the campaign, but we feel very good about our positioning."
The poll offers other candidates the chance to feel good.Twenty-nine percent of GOP voters said they were undecided. The same percentage of
independents, who make up a third of the overall S.C. electorate and who can vote in the GOP primary, also were undecided.
The Romney camp also can take cheer that the poll is one of the first to show their candidate in double digits in South Carolina.
"We are slowly building a campaign from the base up," Romney's S.C. director, Terry Sullivan, said. "We're not going to rocket into first place."
A McCain spokesman said any poll is just a snapshot, predicting the senator's S.C. organization eventually will carry the day.
"There will be many polls over the next several months, but there is no doubt that Senator McCain has the strongest, most organized effort in the state," McCain spokesman Adam Temple said.
Yet S.C. voters are unsure about McCain's support of President Bush's Iraq war policies. A third of S.C. Republicans said they think McCain's support for Bush has hurt his campaign. Among independents that number jumps to 46 percent.
McCain spokesman Temple was undeterred, saying South Carolinians understand what is at stake in Iraq.
"John McCain believes we need to give the new strategy in Iraq a chance to succeed. Americans want a president who is willing to take on tough issues and Senator McCain is that individual."
Reach Gould Sheinin at (803) 771-8658.