Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2008

Morris: Breakout on horizon for Bowden

A watered-down league and a talented lineup will carry Clemson to an ACC title

IN MANY RESPECTS, foreseeing the future of Clemson football is pretty easy. Tommy Bowden’s team possesses more talent than any team in the ACC, and perhaps as much as any team in the country. Clemson competes in a weak league that does not have another top-level team this season.

Clemson’s situation is reminiscent of Florida State’s early days in the ACC. Florida State could have sent its second units out against many ACC opponents and still won. Many seasons, Florida State received a free ticket to the national championship game, having only to defeat non-conference opponents Miami and Florida along the way during the regular season.

Now in the 10th season of the Tommy Bowden era, Clemson appears to be what Florida State once was. The Tigers have few questions to be answered entering the season and enough depth across the board to survive a reasonable number of injuries.

On offense, Clemson has an experienced quarterback, Cullen Harper, who has been mentioned in Heisman Trophy circles. The Tigers have the best trio of running backs in the country in James Davis, C.J. Spiller and Jamie Harper. They have outstanding wide receivers and an offensive line that will grow into Bowden’s best.

On defense, the secondary is stellar, and the line is anchored by freshman Da’Quan Bowers, who could quickly become the top freshman in the country. The Tigers have an exceptional kicker in Mark Buchholz.

Everything points to an unbeaten run through the regular season, matching Clemson’s 1981 national championship season. Everything, that is, except for the reality of college football. Only eight teams the past eight seasons have run the table, including three (Southern California, Auburn and Utah) in 2004. No team survived the season without a loss in 2003 or this past season.

In Clemson’s case, there likely will be a game in which the offense stalls, as it did a season ago in an inexplicable 13-3 loss at Georgia Tech. There is no way to figure how an offense that averaged 37 points could not get the ball into the end zone against a Georgia Tech team that gave up 22 points per game.

History also tells us to count on one game in which Clemson’s special teams melt down. It seems to happen in at least one game every season. A season ago, it occurred against Virginia Tech when the Hokies returned a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown — both in the first half — in a 41-23 victory.

So when will Clemson falter? There are not many possibilities, simply because Clemson is so much more talented than many of its opponents. The Tigers should roll easily over The Citadel, N.C. State, S.C. State, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Duke and Virginia.

One possible loss is against Alabama on Saturday in Atlanta. Another is at Wake Forest on Oct. 9. Two others are on consecutive November Saturdays at Boston College and Florida State. Then there is the finale against South Carolina.

In every one of those games, Clemson will be the most talented team on the field. In a couple of cases (Boston College and Florida State), Clemson will clearly be the better coached team.

It is likely that Clemson will have an offensive malfunction in one game and a special teams blowup in one other. My guess is that Clemson might even survive one of those performances. In which case, the Tigers are staring at an 11-1 regular season.

Even with a couple of regular-season losses, Bowden finally guides Clemson to an Atlantic Division title and the ACC championship game. Since we can only speculate on the opponent (let’s say Virginia Tech), it is difficult to predict the outcome of that game.

Bowden likes to point out that it took his father, Bobby, many years at Florida State to finally break through and win a national championship. He also points to Mack Brown at Texas, who needed 21 seasons to win a conference championship, let alone a national title.

My guess is that this is Bowden’s breakthrough season at Clemson. He will win the elusive ACC title with a victory against Virginia Tech. But because Clemson plays in the ACC, the Tigers will not play for the BCS national championship. Instead, Clemson will settle for an Orange Bowl loss to Missouri.

That should quiet the Bowden critics around Clemson for years to come.

Coming Wednesday: South Carolina finds success in year four under Steve Spurrier.