Thursday, Jan. 01, 2009

Strelow's Gator Bowl forecast, prediction

Dabo Swinney suggested Wednesday that if Clemson gets in a scoring match with Nebraska, it’s probably going to be a long day for the Tigers.

“That probably wouldn’t be very good, based on what’s happened this season,” Swinney said.

Based on what’s happened this season, I wonder if that’s not the ONLY way Clemson will beat Nebraska.

From Swinney’s perspective, the Tigers haven’t exactly proven capable of matching a prolific scoring machine, even though they’ve notched between 27 and 31 points four of their final five games.

Considering Nebraska has failed to notch 28 points just once this year – wow, that’s impressive, even if Big 12 defenses are a sieve – I’m inclined to think Clemson is going to have to mount a season-high point total to prevail.

Which isn’t as big a hurdle as it might seem.

Swinney is spot-on in this respect: This is a compelling matchup of Nebraska’s offense vs. Clemson’s defense, both of which have posted some impressive stats.

The underlying question, though, is whether Nebraska’s offense is really that good, given how many Big 12 teams have racked up comparable numbers.

Similarly, is Clemson’s defense that stingy when the ACC doesn’t have a passing game/quarterback that anyone fears.

There are so, so many intriguing layers to this showdown.

Nebraska is pretty decent up front defensively, but can’t stop any formidable passing game.

For example, junior college transfer safety Larry Asante – who told me earlier this week that on a scale of 1-10 of how close he was to signing with Clemson, he was a 9 – is stellar as a run-supporter in the box. But most Huskers fans will tell you that Asante has been burnt in pass coverage more than his fair share.

Nebraska, like everyone else, will have its bull’s eye in the backfield. Which is just one of the reasons I don’t think Davis is going to get the 112 yards needed to break the school’s career rushing record.

Yet given Nebraska’s difficulty defending the pass with the back seven, Clemson’s chance for optimum success likes in a similar gameplan to what it successfully executed at Boston College.

Put Spiller in the slot and use the wheel route that frees him deep along the sideline. Go back to working the seam with 6-5 Aaron Kelly, who is superb on slants, posts and corner hitches.

And I’d still like to see Clemson finally utilize speedster Jacoby Ford in the slot. Everyone exposes 1-on-1 mismatches with Clemson’s linebackers, especially on crossing routes. Ford, despite his route-running inconsistencies, should still be able to provide this.

But honestly, I’m more interested in how the Tigers plan to defend Nebraska.

Say what you will about the perceived passivity of fired/resigned defensive coordinator Vic Koenning’s scheme – Koenning was adept at taking away an opponent’s strength.

And I really thought that down the stretch, Koenning did a masterful job of using his nickel and Cover-3 packages, often sticking safety Mike Hamlin at middle linebacker.

Interim co-coordinator David Blackwell knows this scheme up and down, but he’s obviously going to have different playcalling tendencies, and I don’t think it’s any secret both Swinney and Blackwell want to play more man coverage and take more chances than Koenning did

So I think it’s fair to wonder how this philosophy will mesh with the scheme that’s in place and the tendencies that have made it relatively work to date.

The last five Gator Bowl winners have reached 30 points, and the last 11 have made it to 28 points.

While I think Clemson has the tools to expose Nebraska’s weaknesses, the league teams that beat the Cornhuskers (Missouri, Texas Tech and Oklahoma) were proven scoring machines. (Notice I’m conveniently omitting Nebraska’s 35-30 home loss in September to Virginia Tech; as the Tigers should be able to attest, that coaching staff just gets more out of less).

Odds just seem to favor a lot of points going up on the board. So it’s hard to go against the Cornhuskers when the style plays into its hands.

PREDICTION: NEBRASKA 34, CLEMSON 31

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