SC cities with mask requirements are seeing coronavirus spread slow, data show
As cities across South Carolina create a patchwork of mask requirements, some of South Carolina’s largest cities are seeing the spread of the coronavirus slow thanks to their local orders, according to a new State newspaper analysis.
Cities such as Charleston, Greenville, Myrtle Beach, Spartanburg and Beaufort have seen a dramatic slowing down of COVID-19 growth, after seeing explosive growth rates before their mask rules were in place, the paper found, comparing COVID-19 growth rates in those cities’ ZIP codes before and after the rules took effect.
Meanwhile, ZIP codes in Columbia, Lexington, Camden, Orangeburg, Rock Hill and Sumter — where cases were growing but not as fast as other places around the state — have seen decreased growth rates or fluctuations, the analysis of state Department of Health and Environmental Control data shows.
The improving statistics in those cities are largely thanks to the mask orders, said Medical University of South Carolina’s Michael Schmidt, a professor who works at the university’s Microbiology and Immunology Department.
“Since the governor has strongly encouraged mask wearing and the municipalities are requiring mask wearing … the trend has gone down,” Schmidt said.
Schmidt specifically pointed out that areas like Charleston, which has a mask requirement, are seeing a decrease in growth of new coronavirus cases. While those areas have not yet reached a “green zone,” or a sustained reduction in new cases, they could be headed that way, he said.
“It’s doing what mask wearing does,” Schmidt said.
Data: Mask rules curb explosive growth
ZIP code level data shows that several of South Carolina’s biggest cities with mask requirements have seen a lower growth in coronavirus cases week to week.
For example, in Myrtle Beach, one of the state’s worst outbreaks near the beginning of summer, every ZIP code has seen a reduction in coronavirus spread compared to before a mask rule went into effect.
For example, ZIP code 29572 — which covers a coastal area including Arcadian Shores, The Dunes and the Tanger Outlets — saw about 93% growth in cases during the week of June 23, before the city passed its mask requirement. This week, 29572 only saw about 14% growth from the week before. Other Myrtle Beach ZIP codes have seen similar results.
Myrtle Beach Mayor Brenda Bethune said the city has seen good compliance with its mask order, which went into effect on July 2. The city’s police and code enforcement office have been checking businesses to make sure that they’re in compliance with the rule.
“I have personally been very pleased with the level of compliance from our visitors,” Bethune said. “I believe that people have come to an understanding that the wearing of masks does make a difference and it is to protect themselves and those they love.”
Charleston, which has seen some of the largest daily coronavirus case increases each day, has seen positive results since passing their mask requirements in late June.
“I think it is the one most effective tool that we have at this juncture to flatten this spike that South Carolina and anywhere that’s seen it, including Charleston, has seen,” Charleston Mayor John Tecklenburg said.
In Charleston, every single ZIP code has seen a reduction in growth of COVID-19 cases as well after putting in place a mask rule. In the 29403 area — the part of the peninsula including the “NoMo” (north of Morrison Drive), East Central, North Central, Hampton Park Terrace, Westside and Cannonborough Elliotborough neighborhoods — officials saw 58% growth from the previous week on June 29, before the city’s mask requirement took effect. On Wednesday, 29403 saw only about 8% growth in new cases from the week before.
“What that means for our citizens and for the citizens of South Carolina is that lives will be saved, the kids will be able to get back to schools and our businesses will be able to remain open,” Tecklenburg said.
Compliance among tourists and visitors, though, has been an issue, the mayor said. The city is working on creating fliers for people who check into hotels to inform them that they could face a $100 ticket for not wearing a mask while in public within the city limits.
Tecklenburg said he strongly encourages other cities to pass their own mask requirements, something McMaster called for himself Wednesday as well.
Greenville, which led the state in new COVID-19 cases for months, has also seen progress in every ZIP code. The most dramatic change was within 29601, which includes downtown, and the neighborhoods of Southernside, Payne-Logan, Sterling and parts of Haynie-Sirrine. On June 16, before the city’s mask requirement was enacted, the area saw 96% growth in coronavirus cases from the week before. In each of the last two weeks, 29601 has only seen about 11% growth from the week before.
Results in Columbia — which has had a newer mask order in place since June 26 — haven’t been so uniform. While some parts of the city have seen marked improvements, other areas have seen growth level out or fluctuate.
ZIP codes that cover downtown, Rosewood, the northeast, outer parts of Forrest Acres and parts of Irmo have seen decreases in coronavirus growth. For example, in 29201, which stretches vertically from Earlewood to Arthurtown and includes downtown Columbia, growth in new coronavirus cases decreased week to week from 17.5% on June 29 to 9.2% on Wednesday.
The 29203 zip code, which includes Eau Claire, Denny Terrace, Hollywood Hills, Fairfield Terrace, Arlington Estates and parts of Killian, saw 34% growth from the previous week on July 7. That fell to 21% growth by July 28.
The ZIP codes in the Two Notch Road area, the Broad River Road area and near Fort Jackson have each seen wavering or stabilized growth rates.
For example, growth rates have fluctuated in 29204, which includes most of Forest Acres and part of Waverly. On June 29, the area saw about 19.5% growth from the week before. By July 21, that number fell to 13%, but it rose again on Wednesday to 21.5%.
The 29207 ZIP code, which falls East of I-77 around Fort Jackson, saw 12.9% growth from the previous week on June 29 and 41% growth on July 7. That number decreased, though by Wednesday, falling to 7.8%.
SC still in the ‘red zone’
Other parts of the state may see some of that progress after S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster ordered Wednesday that customers at restaurants and venues that often hold mass gatherings must wear masks. The governor’s order did not include retailers, many of which have created their own mask requirements for customers.
The governor’s order also does not cover public areas like sidewalks and parking lots. But McMaster called for local governments to pass their own mask requirements and ordered local police to enforce his order at businesses that were covered.
“This is the time for local leadership,” McMaster said during a press conference Wednesday.
Stronger statewide guidelines could bring positive results to South Carolina, which continues to see one of the world’s worst outbreaks of the coronavirus and was recently named a “red zone” by the White House coronavirus task force.
“I think anytime we can collectively work together as a state will lead to a much faster control of this virus,” MUSC’s Schmidt said.
Studies have shown that other states have seen success in curbing COVID-19 after passing statewide requirements for all residents to wear masks while in public. In a study published in Health Affairs, researchers saw a “significant decline” in coronavirus growth after 15 states and the District of Columbia mandated that residents wear masks, with the growth slowing more and more over time.
But with more businesses reopening, wearing a mask will be even more important now, University of South Carolina School of Public Health professor Anthony Alberg said. On Wednesday, McMaster ordered that all remaining closed businesses can reopen starting Monday.
“Once things started opening up again, the coronavirus began circulating widely in the community … the number of cases testing positive per day has increased more than tenfold now,” Alberg said. “Wearing masks would really help to diminish the transmission of the virus in the community.”
Though masks aren’t perfect at blocking the coronavirus, they do reduce the likelihood that someone is exposed to an infection, Alberg said. They become more effective as more people wear them. Research also shows that masks don’t just protect people from exposure. They help prevent someone who’s sick or who may not know that they’re sick from infecting others.
“You can think about it as a team effort,” Alberg said. “If more people wear face coverings, then the benefit multiplies. If everyone is pitching in, then the benefits are even larger.”
South Carolina has seen a boom in coronavirus cases since June as businesses reopened. Since June 19, the state has seen more than 1,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases every day except three.
And South Carolinians are nowhere near getting COVID-19 under control, experts say. South Carolina remains in the “yellow zone” and the “red zone” when it comes to several measurements, Schmidt said. For example, the state is still in the yellow zone when it comes to the average growth of new confirmed cases from day to day, which statewide falls at 2.8%, he said.
“The virus is still finding a susceptible host, which means that someone is not wearing their mask to prevent its transmission,” Schmidt said.
The state is in the “red zone” when it comes to number of cases reported per week per capita, Schmidt said. The “red zone” is for states with more than five new cases per week per 10,000 people.
Schmidt warned, though, that the progress that has been made across the state can turn sour if people don’t follow health guidelines like wearing a mask and practicing social distancing.
“While South Carolina today has a green light, it can quickly change to yellow and then go straight to red,” Schmidt said.
“Wearing masks, washing your hands and physical distancing has indeed helped South Carolina turn the corner. So don’t stop what you’re doing. Continue to wear your mask.”
This story was originally published July 30, 2020 at 4:08 PM.
