SC health experts predict COVID-19 surge after Labor Day, as students return to school
Health experts project that South Carolina could see a coronavirus resurgence as students go back to in-person classes and travelers enjoy the Labor Day weekend.
Whether or not that surge will be as big as the state saw after Memorial Day — which launched the Palmetto State into regularly seeing more than 1,000 confirmed cases reported per day — will all depend on whether residents wear masks, practice social distancing and regularly was their hands, experts added.
“If people don’t take the proper precautions, we’re going to see another massive surge after Labor Day,” Clemson bio-statistician Lior Rennert said. “It’s as simple as that.”
Officials with the state Department of Health and Environmental Control share Rennert’s concerns. In late August, state epidemiologist Linda Bell warned the state could see a rebound as residents celebrate the long holiday weekend.
“When we see these gatherings, and the majority of people are not wearing masks and they are not physically distancing, it’s those previous experiences that cause me concern with the upcoming holiday,” Bell said during a call with reporters late last month.
South Carolina has been stuck in a pattern when it comes to the coronavirus, said Michael Sweat, a professor at the Medical University of South Carolina who examines community health. Over a period of time, there’s a “fatigue factor” that sets in after people have been forced to remain separate and vigilant about the virus, he added.
When residents get tired of practicing social distancing, staying home or wearing a mask, they “push the limits more and more and get comfortable with the risk they’re taking,” Sweat said.
“That can add up to another resurgence,” Sweat said. “That’s a concern.”
When the confirmed case numbers begin to climb again, people become more cautious, Sweat said. In South Carolina, the data show this happening every two to three months, Sweat said.
For example, a few weeks after S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster issued a “work or home” order in early April, DHEC officials estimated that South Carolina had rounded the coronavirus case curve, and the state was projected to see a decrease in cases starting in late April. However, cases surged after Memorial Day, which was about two months after the governor issued his first major coronavirus-related restriction, ordering all “nonessential” businesses to close in late March. The surge was a major reversal of DHEC’s projections.
Sweat projected that the increase in confirmed coronavirus cases the state could see after Labor Day and as students return to school may not be as bad as Memorial Day, when cases spiked from the 200s to 300s each day to reaching over 1,000 in just a few weeks. The Memorial Day spike was likely aided by restrictions being lifted on several types of businesses, Sweat said. In July, S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster allowed all remaining businesses to reopen.
“I don’t know that I would be as worried about it as the last one,” Sweat said. “I think a lot of people have seen the reality that if you get out and don’t wear a mask and don’t separate from each other ... you’ll get those outbreaks.”
Schools could fuel spread
Students returning to school creates a lot more concern, the MUSC health expert said. Children are more likely to be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic if they contract COVID-19, Sweat said.
“The science seems to suggest strongly that kids get infected just like anyone else, and they can transmit just like everyone else,” Sweat said. “...These kids can easily transmit to adults and others who are much more vulnerable.”
Other states have struggled to contain infections as their students returned to class. In Georgia, a school district quarantined nearly 1,200 people after identifying several coronavirus cases within its schools. In Florida, hundreds of students across the state were sent home as teachers and students contracted the virus or suspected they had it.
South Carolina’s flagship university, the University of South Carolina in Columbia, made national news as COVID-19 infections nearly doubled to more than 1,000 in about a week’s time.
South Carolina has already seen at least one K-12 school closure. On Wednesday, school officials announced that Chapin Elementary would be closing its doors after a student intern tested positive. The school had yet to begin the semester, but was participating in early learning classes.
Fourteen school districts across the state are solely offering virtual classes, state superintendent Molly Spearman testified Tuesday to members of the state Senate Finance Committee. Fifty districts are offering a hybrid model, which means their students attend some combination of in person and virtual classes.
Reopening schools for in-person classes “has to be done extremely carefully,” Rennert said, adding that
the virus’ spread within a school will mirror what’s going on in the surrounding communities.
“If cases are out of control outside of schools, than reopening schools is going to create a hotbed for disease transmission,” Rennert said.
“As a society, we have to be vigilant about keeping the disease spread under control outside of schools,” Rennert added.
‘Not only safe, but essential’
Despite South Carolina’s still high percentage of COVID-19 tests coming back positive, and despite news of school closures and outbreaks, South Carolina lawmakers and education officials still are pushing forward with in-person classes, saying safety is key to success.
In July, when the state was seeing some of the highest case counts of the pandemic, S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster and several top lawmakers urged all schools to offer in-person classes five days a week in the fall.
Sen. Greg Hembree, who stood by McMaster’s side during that press conference, has struck a softer tone since.
“I still do believe that live instruction for particularly kindergarten through sixth grade five days a week is not only safe, but essential,” the Horry Republican who chairs the Senate’s Education Committee said.
“I think you have to be more flexible as you go up,” he added, explaining that whether middle- or high-school students need to participate in in-person instruction depends on how prevalent the coronavirus is in the community.
Hembree said in July, officials weren’t sure how prevalent the coronavirus would still be come September. At the time, he believed that school districts that were vowing to hold virtual classes only were taking “an irresponsible position” because the future of the virus was unclear.
“I felt like it was just vitally important that every district at least make a plan to go back in person in September,” Hembree said.
S.C. Sen. Katrina Shealy, R-Lexington, said she stands by her decision to support students’ return to the classroom.
“For their mental health, it’s so much better for them to be there,” Shealy said Wednesday shortly after the Senate voted to expand absentee voting so that any registered voter can cast a ballot before election day, by mail or in person, to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
“Now, are there going to be cases? Yes, there’s going to be cases,” Shealy said of schools. “But kids are going to the grocery stores with their parents. They’re going to Walmart. They’re playing sports. ... I think kids need to go back to school.”
Schools in other states that have had to send students home to be quarantined or that have had to close “probably weren’t following the guidelines that they were supposed to be,” Shealy said, pointing to the recent decline in confirmed coronavirus cases across the state as an indicator that South Carolinians are wearing masks and taking precautions more seriously.
Since Aug. 10, South Carolina has seen a decrease in coronavirus cases, with more than 1,000 confirmed cases reported on just three days. Part of that decline has been due to a decrease in testing, DHEC officials have said. The percentage of tests that turn up positive, an indicator of the virus’ spread, has lowered slightly, but it has yet to reach the threshold that state health officials consider good: about 5%.
On Tuesday, Spearman — the state schools chief who previously broke ranks with McMaster over schools reopening five days a week — told senators she now is pushing districts to offer some type of in-person instruction after concerns from lawmakers that not every student learns best virtually.
“It’s only fair,” Spearman said, noting that her staff will review districts’ policies every two weeks and principals are responsible for ensuring teachers’ strategies are working. “...There’s some families who just cannot, students who can’t, don’t learn well this way or families who just cannot support their children at home. I’m pushing them hard.”
If students, teachers and vacationers follow the tried and true methods of reducing the spread of the coronavirus, the state may be able to avoid another surge after the holiday weekend.
About 40% of South Carolinians already live in areas with mask requirements, and those areas have seen lower rates of infection than areas without mask rules, according to DHEC.
“There’s pretty solid evidence ... that what brought this big wave down that we’ve seen over the summer was mask wearing, distancing and avoiding an indoor setting,” Sweat said. “It works. We know it works.”
“The best news we have is these behaviors work,” he added.
Those precautions are what helped lower South Carolina’s standing as one of the worst outbreaks of the virus in the world in the last month.
“If cases keep dropping at the rate that they’re dropping, eventually, that will be enough,” Rennert said. “But that is a big if.”
Maayan Schechter contributed to this report.
