How a split black vote in South Carolina could boost Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders has proven that he can expand his base and win in a diverse state. But in South Carolina, he faces an even steeper test.
After struggling mightily with nonwhite voters during his 2016 presidential campaign, the Vermont senator has made significant inroads with Latino voters. Sanders won half of them on his way to a commanding victory in last week’s Nevada caucuses, according to entrance polls.
Sanders’ success with black voters thus far in the 2020 race has also been significant, but far more limited. That presents a challenge for him Saturday in South Carolina, a state he overwhelmingly lost four years ago where the majority of the Democratic electorate is African American.
But thanks to Joe Biden’s struggles, Democratic operatives in the state say, and recent polls suggest, that the black vote may split among several candidates, providing Sanders with an opportunity to cobble together a broader coalition beyond his core support of young white progressives.
Even a narrow loss in South Carolina could further bolster Sanders position as the Democratic front-runner heading into a diverse slate of Super Tuesday contests.
“This race is very different from the last two times we had primaries in South Carolina,” said Brady Quirk-Garvan, the former chairman of the Charleston Democratic Party. “This time with a crowded field, it’s about coalition building. … How do you put together a coalition that includes a large group of African American voters, but also young progressives in Charleston and Greenville that have seen population growth.”
For Sanders, that means turning out young black voters like Alex Seaborn. The 23-year-old Charleston resident, who is pursuing an associate’s degree in cybersecurity, didn’t vote in the 2016 primary. But in the years since, he became a Sanders fan and is now volunteering for the campaign.
Seaborn said from his vantage point, the campaign’s outreach is far more expansive in 2020. At the North Charleston rally Seaborn attended Wednesday, Sanders announced that the campaign had knocked on over 200,000 doors in South Carolina.
“I’ve lived here for like 10 or 12 years, and I’ve never had any candidates ever canvass in my neighborhood before, Seaborn said. “This time we’ve canvassed in low-income neighborhoods downtown, we’ve canvassed in Goose Creek and Summerville, we’ve canvassed in Charleston. It’s a very strong effort from a very diverse staff within the Bernie campaign.”
According to the Sanders campaign, a majority of their South Carolina staff is African American and from the state, which was not the case in 2016. Over the past year, the campaign has toured barbershops, held private meetings with local black leaders, and run ads focused on African Americans. They’ve also leaned on black surrogates such as former Ohio state Sen. Nina Turner, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison and activist Cornel West.
In the week leading up to the primary, Sanders had scheduled four rallies throughout South Carolina.
“I know a lot of people that, especially in the black community in South Carolina, didn’t really know him,” said Leshawn Janer, a 45-year-old Uber driver who attended Sanders’ North Charleston rally Wednesday. “But he’s built that name recognition, he’s built that infrastructure in the state of South Carolina, and really all over the country.”
“They’ve definitely planted roots down in South Carolina,” he added. “They want to try and win this state.”
Still, South Carolina is not a natural fit for Sanders. The 1,200-person crowd at his North Charleston rally, which began late Wednesday morning, was mostly white. He won just 14% of black voters in the state in 2016, when they comprised 60% of the electorate, according to exit polls. And voters under the age of 30 only made up 15% of the electorate four years ago, a group Sanders narrowly carried in South Carolina, despite his strength with them elsewhere.
Sanders continues to face resistance in the state, particularly from older voters of color. Charleston health care worker Cassandra Whaley, who attended a Pete Buttigieg town hall in North Charleston on Monday, said she didn’t think Sanders supported Hillary Clinton strongly enough in the last general election.
“It kind of didn’t show me that he’s a team player,” Whaley said. “I want him to look a little more into not the selfish way, (but) more of that team player mentality.”
Whaley said she is considering voting for Elizabeth Warren, Buttigieg, or Biden, who is still widely viewed as the favorite to win Saturday’s primary even as his standing in the race has diminished. The former vice president received a timely endorsement from longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn Wednesday, which could help solidify his support with black voters.
But Sanders may not need to win black voters outright, rather just remain competitive with them in a splintered field. In the last two competitive South Carolina primaries, a clear majority of black voters gravitated towards Barack Obama, and then Clinton. This time around, it’s a different dynamic.
A new NBC News/Marist poll in South Carolina found Biden leading with black voters at 35%, followed by 20% for Sanders and 19% for Tom Steyer. A recent CBS News/YouGov survey in the state produced a similar result: 35% of the black vote for Biden, compared to 24% for Steyer and 23% for Sanders. Both polls showed Biden with a slim lead over Sanders with all voters.
Biden and Steyer clashed on the debate stage Tuesday night as the former hedge fund manager has eaten into the former vice president’s support with more moderate black voters.
“If Bernie has an upset, then he needs to thank his new billionaire friend Tom Steyer,” said Clay Middleton, who worked on Cory Booker’s 2020 campaign and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign in South Carolina. “Any African American support Biden had that is now with Steyer helps Sanders.”
Biden was the only candidate Sanders called out by name during his 45-minute speech Wednesday at the Charleston Area Convention Center. Sanders criticized Biden for his past support trade deals, a bankruptcy bill, the Iraq War and entitlement program cuts.
“Joe is a friend of mine and a decent guy, but that is not the voting record or the history that is going to excite people, bring them into the political process, and beat Trump,” Sanders said to applause.
Towards the end of his speech, Sanders acknowledged the gains his campaign had made in the state, having trailed by as much as 30 points in some polls last year. He told the crowd they had come “a long, long way in closing that gap,” and predicted a victory on Saturday — given one condition.
“I believe if we can put together the largest voter turnout for a South Carolina primary in the history of the state,” Sanders said, “we are going to win here in South Carolina.”
Alex Roarty contributed reporting.
This story was originally published February 27, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "How a split black vote in South Carolina could boost Bernie Sanders."
