Odds no longer all in Lindsey Graham’s favor in US Senate race, new forecasts say
Two new analyses from prominent national political prognosticators show this year’s U.S. Senate race in South Carolina is becoming more competitive.
But the suggestion that Democrat Jaime Harrison has a remote chance of beating incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham is one that the South Carolina GOP is dismissing out of hand.
“I don’t put any faith in it,” said state Republican Party chair Drew McKissick on Thursday morning, predicting that on Election Day, Graham would enjoy “a statewide blowout.”
McKissick was on the defensive after two leading election handicappers — the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball — shifted their ratings of Graham’s reelection chances from “solid” and “safe” Republican to “likely” Republican.
In explaining the ratings changes, the Cook and Sabato reports both emphasized that this November’s expected match-up between Graham and Harrison is shaping up to be more competitive than usual in a reliably red state.
They also cautioned that while their new predictions moved slightly away from favoring Graham for victory, the forecasts could not be read as predicting Harrison has a strong chance of winning the race, when Graham still enjoys the advantages of incumbency, a massive war chest and close ties to President Donald Trump.
The prognosticators did, however, argue it was now impossible to ignore Harrison’s strong fundraising, growing name recognition and potential for mobilizing the South Carolina’s significant base of black voters who tend to support Democrats.
He was the first black chairman of the S.C. Democratic Party and a longtime senior aide for U.S. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, South Carolina’s most influential Democrat, giving Harrison in-state clout.
Harrison also currently holds a leadership position with the Democratic National Committee and spent years as a lobbyist for the now-defunct Podesta Group, giving him deep-pocketed, out-of-state donor connections.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed Harrison for the Senate seat early on in a vote of confidence in his viability.
“When we look at this race, it’s clear it’s no longer one that is being ignored by either party. And our definition of a race that is ‘Likely Republican’ is simply a race that is ‘not considered competitive at this point, but [has] the potential to become engaged,’” Jessica Taylor, an editor with the Cook Political Report, wrote in her analysis. “This race fits that criteria.”
“South Carolina remains the most Republican state on the Eastern Seaboard,” Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball agreed. “Harrison’s path is not an easy one, but it is also not an impossible one.”
In an interview with The State on Thursday, McKissick was strongly dismissive of both analyses, saying he put little stock in a political predictions exercise he called a “game” where analysts felt compelled to change ratings “to cover their bases and make themselves look good” as a race appears competitive from a fundraising standpoint.
McKissick also downplayed Harrison’s fundraising entirely, which has largely come from out-of-state.
“No amount of money — no amount of Hollywood, Manhattan, special interest money — is going to successfully sell a Washington, D.C., lobbyist to South Carolina voters. Period,” said McKissick.
According to the Cook Political Report’s analysis of Harrison’s and Graham’s fundraising, Graham raised roughly 80% of his cash outside South Carolina, compared with roughly 92% for Harrison.
Also, McKissick added, “(Harrison) has been doing full-time fundraising. Sen. Graham has been a little occupied with the coronavirus response crisis.”
Harrison raised $7.4 million in first three months of 2020, as compared with Graham’s haul of $5.6 million. Harrison has raised $15 million since entering the race, and Graham has raised $22.6 million.
But while it might be easier to discredit political predictions from outside the state, one of South Carolina’s leading experts in political public opinion said the two professional assessments were not so outlandish.
Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University who runs the institution’s well-regarded statewide surveys, said Harrison’s fundraising, name recognition and ground game is making the contest competitive for Graham, who has never been more popular with conservatives but is alienating himself from Democrats and centrists who don’t appreciate his alliance with Trump.
“The bubbling anger (with Graham) in terms of the impeachment hearings and being tied to Trump with the pandemic, those are things that turn out a base against a candidate, and in this case they have somebody to vote for in Jaime Harrison, who’s got a good ground game and money,” Huffmon told The State.
“Depending on how much anger the Democratic base in South Carolina has against Trump, and Graham by proxy, this race could easily be in the single digits right now,” he continued. “I would still say the probability gives an edge to Graham, but it’s not an impossibility at all that Graham could be upset.”
McKissick scoffed at the idea that Democrats could win a “moral victory” by getting within the single digits of the leading Republican candidate, but it’s clear that Graham’s campaign is taking the threat of a close race seriously.
The Graham operation has sent a pair of fundraising emails in recent weeks alerting donors to Harrison’s out-of-state money while underscoring the need for Republican supporters to increase their contributions.
And on Wednesday, a Graham-aligned super PAC reserved $1.6 million in South Carolina air time to run ads in the final weeks of the general election campaign.
“Whether it’s setting fundraising records or closing the gap in recent polling, Jaime’s campaign to bring hope back to South Carolina is turning heads around the country,” Harrison’s campaign manager, Zack Carroll, said in a statement Thursday morning. “These shifts announced today reflect the grassroots momentum we see all across the state. And unfortunately for Sen. Graham, we are just getting started.”
Graham’s campaign declined to comment for this story, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
This story was originally published April 30, 2020 at 2:20 PM.
