Battle over Supreme Court seat could help Graham in SC Senate race, forecaster says
The political battle over who fills the late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat may ultimately help South Carolina’s three-term Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in his re-election bid, says a new election forecast.
On Monday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics moved the state’s U.S. Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” days after a poll showed Graham’s race against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison tied at 48% in the historically Republican state.
A Democrat hasn’t won a statewide seat since 2006.
But Sabato’s Kyle Kondik and Miles Coleman write that the debate — 43 days before the election — over who will replace Ginsburg on the high court could play to Graham’s advantage.
As chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Graham said over the weekend he supports moving forward and filling the seat with a Trump appointee. That is despite Graham’s previous sentiment, when in 2016 — roughly eight months before the presidential election — Graham was against filling a seat of the late Justice Antonin Scalia.
“It’s a certain bet that (Graham’s) Democratic colleagues — and Harrison — will bring up Graham’s past statements, and that could hurt Graham with moderate voters, even if it boosts his credibility on the right,” wrote Kondick and Coleman. “The latter ultimately may be more important in a state like South Carolina.”
Harrison has been able to raise millions in fundraising dollars since the release of the tied Quinnipiac poll last week. His campaign reported raising more than $1 million in a 24-hour period after the poll was published.
However, both candidates have raised tens of millions of dollars, fueling a bevy of television and digital ads in the state.
The level of support in two congressional districts also may play a role in the Senate race, according to Sabato’s review.
Sabato’s shift also follows a shift from Inside Elections of the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
Recently, Sabato’s shifted the First Congressional District race between U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham and Republican state Rep. Nancy Mace from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.” The Second District between U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson and Democratic challenger Adair Ford Boroughs was shifted to the left earlier this year, from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”
“It seems reasonable that Harrison could end up carrying Cunningham’s district, perhaps comfortably, and coming close in Wilson’s — this may be enough to give him a path to victory,” Kondick and Coleman wrote. “With that in mind, we’re moving the race from likely Republican to leans Republican, although remember that a leans Republican rating still means we see Graham as a favorite.”
Election forecaster Five Thirty Eight gives Graham an 83% chance of winning the election in November.
This story was originally published September 21, 2020 at 12:21 PM.
