Lindsey Graham lays odds on U.S. attacking North Korea, and they’re steep

Lindsey Graham might have just drawn a line in the sand when it comes to North Korea.

The U.S. Senator from South Carolina told theatlantic.com that if North Korea conducts another nuclear missile test, “then all bets are off.”

Graham, a Republican, went a step further. He placed odds on the likelihood the U.S. attacks North Korea.

“I would say there’s a three in 10 chance we use the military option,” Graham told theatlantic.com of the possibility of a violent conflict without another nuclear weapons test by North Korea, which has conducted six tests to date.

His prediction more than doubles should it be a response to an additional test of a nuclear weapon.

“I would say 70 percent,” Graham said.

“If there’s a war with North Korea it will be because North Korea brought it on itself, and we’re headed to a war if things don’t change,” Graham told cnn.com.

South Carolina’s senior senator said the issue of North Korea came up Sunday, during a round of golf with President Donald Trump.

“It comes up all the time,” Graham told theatlantic.com.

Graham has had Trump’s ear on a number of issues, most recently the tax bill and budget talks. Trump previously voiced support for Graham’s failed attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare.

So what Graham thinks is especially important if he’s in Trump’s inner circle, where he could help determine strategy and potentially dictate decision making.

In his interview, Graham offered his two cents.

“If nothing changes, Trump’s gonna have to use the military option, because time is running out,” Graham said of any potential conflict, which he told theatlantic.com wouldn’t be a simple action. “War with North Korea is an all-out war against the regime. There is no surgical strike option. … So if you ever use the military option, it’s not to just neutralize their nuclear facilities – you gotta be willing to take the regime completely down.”

The White House has repeatedly denied pursuing a regime change, according to multiple reports.

In spite of that, many of Graham’s non-military suggestions also involve unseating Kim Jong Un as North Korea’s leader.

He put the onus on China to remove Kim. One option is to “kill the guy,” while another would be to stop oil shipments to North Korea and cripple its economy.

But Graham, who has built a reputation as an aggressive foreign policy hawk, said he wants to pursue other options before committing to a military conflict.

“I’m not taking anything off the table to avoid a war. … When they write the history of the times, I don’t want them to say, ‘Hey, Lindsey Graham wouldn’t even talk to the guy.’ ”

Graham seemed to offer a retrospective approach on the issue of war. He referenced World War II, and Great Britain’s policy of appeasement with Nazi Germany before engaging in war.

He used that as an example of what not to do, insinuating avoiding conflict isn’t always the best approach.

“(British Prime Minister Neville) Chamberlain was a fool.’ … World War II was preventable about 10 different times, Graham said. “Fifty years from now, long after I’m dead and gone, what will they say about this time?

“I don’t want people 50 years from now having to live with the consequences of us getting this wrong.”

Graham said the sacrifice of some is price to be paid for the safety of many. It was not clear who would be at stake, be it the U.S. military, South Koreans or anybody else.

Experts have warned a war between North Korea and the U.S. could get “very bloody, very quickly,” according to newsweek.com. A November report from the Congressional Research Service concluded as many as 300,000 would die in the first few days of such a conflict, even without the use of nuclear weapons.

“I am literally willing to put hundreds of thousands of people at risk, knowing that millions and millions of people will be at risk if we don’t. And that’s why this whole exercise sucks so much,” Graham told theatlantic.com. “I get, like, zero joy out of having this choice for President Trump.”

This story was originally published December 14, 2017 at 5:22 PM with the headline "Lindsey Graham lays odds on U.S. attacking North Korea, and they’re steep."