With Lincoln Project looming, South Carolina senate race could become multi-front battle
The Lincoln Project, a powerful group of “never Trump” Republicans, will expand its operation to try and defeat some Senate Republicans — including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.
The group was founded by George Conway, husband of presidential advisor Kellyanne Conway, and seven others who collectively “have spent over 200 years electing Republicans,” according to the group’s website.
Its stated mission is to “defeat Donald Trump and Trumpism,” attacking the president with TV ads that air in Washington and in battleground states across the country. The group, a super PAC formed in 2019, raised $16.8 million in the second quarter of this year.
Now it wants to go further than simply toppling Trump, and its efforts could cost the GOP control of the Senate. Fifty-three of the Senate’s 100 members are Republicans, and 23 seats are up in November.
Reed Galen, a Project founder, could not say when it would launch its campaign against Graham or how much it would spend.
He said the group will target GOP senators because “they have shown themselves to represent Donald Trump.” He added that targeting these Republican lawmakers, most of whom he sees as the president’s “enablers in the United States Senate,” was always going to be a part of the group’s mission.
“It’s not about ideology. ... It’s not about philosophy,” Galen said. “It’s about the fact that these people have lost the right to call themselves United States senators and claim, I believe falsely, to serve their constituents and the American people.”
Galen said that Sens. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, Susan Collins, R-Maine, Thom Tillis, R-N.C. and Graham are among the senators the Lincoln Project will target. The group has also been on the air to support Montana Governor Steve Bullock, a Democrat, in his bid for the Senate. Bullock is trying to unseat Sen. Steve Daines, a Republican.
Galen said that the group will also launch ground operations in Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona.
He said the ground operations will focus less on door-knocking and more on voter outreach via phone, text, email and social media because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Graham’s opponent, former South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jaime Harrison, raised $14 million from April 1 to June 30. Graham raised $8.4 million, marking the second quarter in a row that Harrison has outraised Graham. But the Republican senator maintains the advantage in cash on hand, with $15 million compared to Harrison’s $10.2 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
T.W. Arrighi, the Graham campaign’s communications director, said in a statement that the Lincoln Project’s decision to target Graham shows the PAC’s “true allegiance and purpose lies” with Democrats.
Guy King, a spokesman for the Harrison campaign, told The State that “Jaime is focused on running his own campaign” when asked about the Lincoln Project’s plan to target Graham.
Both Graham and Harrison have been on the air and online in recent weeks, with the two campaigns having spent almost $10 million combined on ads since the start of the year, according to data from ad firm Advertising Analytics. However, Harrison spent most of that money, outspending Graham $7.6 million to $2.2 million during that time period.
The Lincoln Project has spent more than $2.5 million on ads since December, according to Federal Election Commission filings, and several of the spots have gone viral online.
Galen said that he didn’t have a “firm number” for how much the group will spend on ads in Senate campaigns, adding that “it depends on the state and the race and what we believe it needs to be effective.”
Galen said “I think we’ll go on the air” in South Carolina but did not have a firm date for when they would launch a campaign in the Palmetto State. He added that it will happen “sooner than later.” In addition to ads, Galen said a ground operation in South Carolina would look similar to the group’s operations in battleground states.
He said the group’s decisions to debut ads are often a judgment call. He said they ask themselves “what is it that we believe is going to be the salient message here and when do we believe is the best time to deliver that message?”
“We do that on a state-by-state, race-by-race basis,” Galen said.
In an election year gripped by a deadly pandemic, ads remain one of the only ways to reach voters, according to Carol Fowler, a former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party.
Fowler said in a phone interview with The State that Harrison’s ad blitz could help voters in South Carolina feel like they know the candidate despite campaigning being limited by the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Certainly his ads, which he is running a lot of, are positive ads,” Fowler said. “They introduce you to Jaime. They make you aware that you can like him and trust him. They’re very effective.”
David Woodard, a former political science professor at Clemson University who managed Graham’s early congressional campaigns, offered a different perspective.
“I think [Graham] is stronger this cycle than he’s ever been since he’s run for the Senate,” Woodard told The State.
The actions that have sparked criticism of Graham, such as his robust defense of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh while the judge faced sexual assault allegations, and vocally backing Trump during the president’s impeachment trial, are popular with the senator’s voter base in South Carolina.
Woodard said the state’s inexpensive and relatively few media markets make it easier to reach voters with ads, but said he “would be surprised if [Harrison] could get enough information out there to undermine Graham.”
The now-retired professor added that the Lincoln Project, a group of long-time Republicans, targeting Graham “certainly adds to [the Harrison campaign’s] credibility,” but maintained that it will be a tough task to unseat the Senate Judiciary Chairman in November.
This story was originally published July 26, 2020 at 5:00 AM.