Could El Niño this winter be strong enough to end the ongoing drought in SC? What forecasters say

It’s been a bit dry out there for many South Carolinians lately.

But that may soon come to an end, forecasters say.

According to the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, South Carolina and much of the Southeast are struggling with drought conditions that may improve because of El Niño this winter. Officials declared in June that El Niño had begun. The weather phenomenon has been gaining strength ever since.

But how will El Niño help reduce drought conditions in South Carolina?

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide, NOAA states. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed east toward the west coast of the U.S.

Strong El Niño conditions are favored for this winter, which could impact weather conditions in South Carolina and across much of the U.S., according to the latest forecast. NOAA forecasters predict a 75-85% chance of a strong El Niño from November through January. There is an 80% chance El Niño will last through spring.

There is also a 3-in-10 chance that this El Niño could become “historically strong” and rival 2015-16 and 1997-98 events, NOAA adds.

SC Drought

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of South Carolina is under some level of drought.

The worst of it is in the Upstate, with multiple counties experiencing moderate drought or a combination of abnormally dry to moderate drought. A few Upstate counties are experiencing even more intense severe drought. There are also abnormally dry conditions along much of the coast.

How could El Niño impact SC weather

According to the National Weather Service, a stronger El Niño could cause more rainfall and colder temperatures than average during winter in South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast. And the strong association between El Niño and above-normal winter precipitation across most of the Southeast could lead to spring flooding.

According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, most of South Carolina has a 50-60% chance of above average rainfall from November through January.

The NOAA U.S. seasonal drought outlook predicts a significant reduction in drought conditions across South Carolina and much of the Southeast.

This story was originally published November 8, 2023 at 6:00 AM.

Patrick McCreless

The State

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Patrick McCreless is the Southeast service journalism editor for McClatchy, who leads and edits a team of six reporters in South Carolina, Georgia and Mississippi. The team writes about trending news of the day and topics that help readers in their daily lives and better informs them about their communities. He attended Jacksonville State University in Alabama and grew up in Tuscaloosa, AL.