Will Trump tariffs slow SC trade with Mexico, China & Canada? There’s a lot at stake. Take a look
Despite being on the smaller side when it comes to Southern states, South Carolina has big business with countries like China, Mexico, and Canada.
Some of that business could be in jeopardy because of President Donald Trump’s recently proposed tariffs though.
A recent Trump executive order imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, both of which promised their own tariffs on American goods. Trump on Monday agreed to a 30-day pause on the tariffs after the two huge trading partners took steps to address his concerns about border security, according to the Associated Press.
Trump’s 10% tariff on China, however, was still on the table as of Tuesday, though Trump has plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming days. Still, China announced that starting Feb. 10, it would impose levies of 15% for U.S. coal and 10% for crude oil, some cars and farm equipment, according to USA Today.
But what are tariffs and how much business does South Carolina have with China, Canada, and Mexico — business that could be slowed by high tariffs on both sides?
What is a tariff?
Tariffs are a tax governments impose on the value of imported products, according to the International Trade Administration. Tariffs have been used by the U.S. government periodically since the late 1700s.
Despite Trump’s repeated statements, tariffs are not paid for by the countries they’re imposed on. Instead, any tariffs imposed on goods coming into the U.S. will be paid by American companies, which in turn will likely pass that cost onto consumers.
The Trump tariff plan is estimated to increase taxes by $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2034, according to a Tax Foundation study. This in turn would grow the average tax increase per U.S. household to over $800 this year.
Tariff impact and SC import/export breakdown
Joseph Von Nessen, research economist at the University of South Carolina, said it’s currently hard to say just how the latest Trump tariffs will impact the state, given that his administration has a history of using them as negotiating tactics.
“This means that any tariffs that are eventually put in place could look very different from how they are originally presented,” Von Nessen said.
Von Nessen added, however, that the threat of tariffs will likely cause general uncertainty in the short run, particularly in the business community.
“Uncertainty breeds paralysis — meaning that businesses have a harder time planning for the future when they don’t know what market environment they will face or how prices may change,” he said. “As such, this can potentially delay major decisions related to factors like new investments or hiring until businesses know how these tariffs will ultimately land and how they will likely affect their operations.”
Imports and exports
At the very least, prices will likely rise on taxed goods coming into South Carolina. And many products the state exports will become more expensive in countries imposing tariffs, likely reducing sales there.
China, Mexico, and Canada are among South Carolina’s top trading partners. In 2023 (the latest data available), South Carolina was the 17th largest exporter out of the 53 exporters in the U.S., according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. South Carolina was the 16th largest importer in 2023 out of the 53 importers in the U.S., OEC states.
The OEC is an online data visualization and distribution platform that focuses on the dynamics of economic activities and which began as a research project at MIT’s Collective Learning group. In 2012 the OEC was spun out of MIT as an open source project.
Below is a breakdown of the state’s imports and exports with Canada, China and Mexico based on 2023 data.
Canada
- South Carolina exports $4.5 billion in goods to Canada annually.
- South Carolina imports $3.5 billion in goods from Canada annually.
- Canada is the #2 export market for South Carolina.
(Information from Connect2Canada and based on 2023 data)
China
- South Carolina exports to China: $4.5 billion
- South Carolina imports from China: $8.18 billion
(Information from OEC and based on 2023 data)
Mexico
- South Carolina exports to Mexico: $3.04 billion
- South Carolina imports from Mexico: $5.51 billion
(Information from OEC and based on 2023 data)
SC total trade
- Total imports: $55.6 billion
- Total exports: $31.5 billion
(Information from OEC and based on 2023 data)
SC top export goods
- Other aircraft parts: $6.33 billion
- Medium-sized cars: $4.33 billion
- Large diesel non-chargable cars: $2.32 billion
- Spark-ignition chargable cars: $2.02 billion
- Pneumatic tyres for construction & mining: $1.14 billion
(Information from OEC and based on 2023 data)
SC top import goods
- Uranium (enriched U235), plutonium compounds, alloys: $2.1 billion
- Engines, spark-ignition reciprocating, over 1000 cc: $1.39 billion
- Other motor vehicle components: $1.15 billion
- Transmissions for motor vehicles: $1.1 billion
- Commodities not specified according to kind: $977 million
(Information from OEC and based on 2023 data)
This story was originally published February 5, 2025 at 5:30 AM.
