Hurricane Dorian’s constantly changing path complicates predictions for Carolinas

As Hurricane Dorian slammed into the Bahamas as a Category 5 storm, its frequent shifts and changes have made predicting its impact on the coastal Carolinas difficult.

On Friday, the storm was expected make landfall near the South Carolina-Georgia line after shifting north of Florida, with eastern North Carolina having a 10 percent chance of tropical-storm force winds, the Charlotte Observer reported Friday.

But the storm’s path shifted “dramatically” on Saturday, the Charlotte Observer reported, putting all of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina in the storm’s “probable path” and increasing torrential rain and flooding concerns in both states.

Mike Brennan, who leads the hurricane specialist unit of the National Hurricane Center, told the New York Times that Hurricane Dorian “may move more erratically” as it is more “susceptible to the topography of the land it passes over” because the jet streams, which are what move hurricanes, are weak in Dorian’s case.

This is making it difficult for forecasters to make predictions about Dorian, according to the New York Times.

The storm was expected to make a direct hit on Florida directly under earlier predictions but is now expected to crawl up the state and to the Carolinas.

The Carolinas are expected to feel the impacts of Dorian through Friday as tropical-storm force winds are expected to arrive in South Carolina at 8 p.m. Tuesday and North Carolina at 8 a.m. Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm is moving slowly. It was traveling west at 8 mph according to a 5 a.m. update on Sunday from the National Hurricane Center, but slowed to 7 mph as of an 11 a.m. update. It’s also expected to stall Sunday and become “nearly stationary” for about 48 hours.

But as it starts moving again, Dorian could have a larger impact on the Carolinas and less of one on Florida, the News & Observer reported Sunday.

Dorian has continued to strengthen, increasing to a Category 5 storm Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Wind speeds also increased from 150 mph on Saturday to 180 mph Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It also increased in size, extending 45 miles from the center with tropical-storm force winds extending 140 miles after originally extending 25 miles with tropical-storm force winds extending 105 miles, the Charlotte Observer reported Saturday.

As it stands, the storm is expected to continue traveling west for the next day or so before shifting northwest, according to the News & Observer, and is expected to slowly weaken as it moves through the northwest Bahamas on Monday.

This story was originally published September 1, 2019 at 2:53 PM with the headline "Hurricane Dorian’s constantly changing path complicates predictions for Carolinas."