Snow unlikely in Columbia, but winter storm still forecast to bring freezing rain
A storm is forecast to bring winter weather to the Midlands this weekend, but it’s looking less likely that snow will be a part of the precipitation in the Columbia area of South Carolina, according to the National Weather Service.
Rather than the white stuff, sleet and freezing rain are expected to be the cold weather effects that pose the greatest threat in the Columbia area, National Weather Service Meteorologist Chris Rohrbach told The State on Thursday.
Snow appears to be reserved for parts of South Carolina that are further north, in the Upstate or in the areas along the state line with North Carolina, according to Rohrbach.
“The area will be getting impactful winter weather and the Midlands are not out of the woods yet,” Rohrbach said. “But snow is looking pretty unlikely.”
Rain will book end the winter storm that’s expected to begin Saturday morning and continue through Sunday and possibly into Monday, Rohrbach said.
Sleet or freezing rain, or both, could begin falling across the Midlands on Saturday night, according to Rohrbach. There’s a 90% chance of precipitation Saturday night, the forecast shows.
The freezing rain and sleet will continue Sunday, when there’s 100% chance of precipitation, until temperatures warm enough to rise above the freezing point by the afternoon or evening, Rohrbach said.
The warm spell will be temporary, and temperatures are expected to drop into the 20s overnight, creating another small window for rain to turn into freezing rain, if the storm hasn’t moved out of the area by that time, according to the forecast.
Rohrbach said the winter storm could last from 12 to 18 hours. He said that’s a shorter duration than areas further north will be affected by the winter storm.
While not much accumulation is expected in the Columbia area, up to 0.2 inches of ice from freezing rain and the same amount of sleet could build on the ground, according to Rohrbach. If that’s the case, it’s below the level that would trigger an automatic winter storm warning.
In a Thursday morning briefing, the National Weather Service said there’s an 18% chance of at least half an inch of freezing rain in Columbia, and chances fall lower than that in the area south of the I-20 corridor.
Ice accumulations could cause significant travel hazards, and any drivers need to prepare for dangerous conditions this weekend.
The direct impacts of the storm could lead to difficulty traveling Sunday, Rohrbach said.
“Avoid travel during periods of ... ice if possible,” the South Carolina Attorney General’s Office said Wednesday. “If travel is unavoidable, keep an emergency kit in your vehicle, including water, food, blankets, a flashlight and a fully charged phone.”
There could be lingering effects that are also a threat after the storm has moved out of the area and any precipitation has stopped.
Driving safety
Following the storm, temperatures will get even colder Monday night, when lows could drop into the teens, the forecast shows. Because Monday will be so cold, it could prolong the effects with a potential refreeze of any precipitation that melted, or lead to the forming of black ice.
Black ice forms when snow or light rain falls on frozen concrete, freezing quickly to form a layer of ice that is almost invisible against the backdrop of blacktop roads.
Drivers should use extreme caution when on Midlands roads, especially bridges and overpasses. The National Weather Service warned drivers to clear their vehicles before driving, travel at slower speeds, avoid using cruise control and leave extra distance between vehicles.
Rohrbach stressed the importance of latter warning, saying “The best advice for drivers is to give plenty of distance between the other vehicles on the road to stop if they need to. We want to make sure everyone is safe.”
Several school districts have said they are monitoring the weather forecast and potential traveling conditions, but no decisions have yet been made about cancelling classes and switching Monday to an e-learning day.
“District officials are monitoring weather forecasts and will assess road conditions over the weekend and into Monday,” Richland 1 spokeswoman Karen York said in an email. “If the decision is made to change school schedules (cancellations or delayed starts) and/or plans for after school activities due to the weather, parents and staff will be notified immediately. Due to changing forecasts, those decisions may not be made until Sunday night or Monday morning.”
Sounding the alarm
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency Wednesday. The declaration activates state and local response plans, including the use of the state National Guard.
No warnings, watches or advisories have been issued for the Columbia area. Some of the northernmost parts of the Midlands, like Lee County, are included in a winter storm watch, according to the National Weather Service.
Rohrbach said additional watches or advisories are possible as we head into the weekend. He thought it was most likely that a cold weather advisory could be issued Monday, when overnight temperatures could drop to a low of 14 degrees.
That type of extreme cold, which could feel even frigider when the wind chill is considered, is very dangerous.
One danger is hypothermia, which can develop indoors when homes are inadequately heated, especially for older adults and babies, the South Carolina EMS Association said. Early signs may include uncontrollable shivering, confusion, extreme fatigue, or slurred speech. Without prompt care, hypothermia can progress rapidly and affect the heart, lungs, and brain.
Cold temperatures also place added strain on the heart, which can increase the risk of a cardiac emergency, including heart attack, according to the South Carolina EMS Association. Breathing cold, dry air can also worsen lung conditions such as asthma and COPD.
Frostbite is also a threat from prolonged exposure to the cold, according to the National Weather Service. Anyone without adequate shelter or clothing is at highest risk of injuries that are potentially fatal.
Additionally, a hard freeze poses a threat to vegetation.
The freezing conditions also present a threat to unprotected outdoor plumbing, according to meteorologists. To prevent water pipes that are not properly insulated from freezing then bursting, wrap or drain them, or allow them to drip slowly, the National Weather Service said.
Any pets also should be brought indoors, according to the South Carolina Emergency Management Division.
Widespread power outages are not expected in the Columbia area, according to Rohrbach. That’s not to say there won’t be power failures. But those instances in Richland and Lexington counties should be more isolated than in counties further north, Rohrbach said.
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