Where Clemson football stands with Miami, SMU in ACC championship game tiebreaker
Clemson football coach Dabo Swinney has been talking a lot about his team controlling its own destiny in the ACC championship game race.
Nine weeks into the season, though, a crazy tiebreaker situation still exists in which Swinney and the Tigers would have no direct control over whether or not they appear in the conference title game in Charlotte.
Instead, the Tigers could win out … and still be at the mercy of an unforeseen metric: Their ACC opponents’ combined conference winning percentage.
And that number could determine whether or not they’re able to play for what’s functionally an automatic bid to the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
Yes, really.
As of Wednesday, four of the ACC’s 17 member schools for football remain undefeated in conference play. No. 11 Clemson has sole possession of first place at 5-0 in conference play, No. 5 Miami and No. 20 SMU are both 4-0 and No. 18 Pitt is 3-0.
It’s the first time in 57 years, dating back to 1967, that four ACC teams have entered the month of November undefeated in conference play.
And since Clemson, Miami and SMU do not play each other during the 2024 regular season, the possibility of a three-way tie for first place in the ACC — with all three schools finishing 8-0 — still exists at the halfway point of the conference schedule.
In that hypothetical situation, an ACC spokesman confirmed to The State on Wednesday, the two participants for the Dec. 7 league championship game could be determined by the combined winning percentage of their ACC opponents.
Why?
The ACC’s current football championship game tiebreaker policy — which was approved in May 2023, ahead of the league’s first divisionless football season — lays out a seven-step tiebreaker that will be used if three or more teams are tied for first place in the ACC after all regular season games are completed on Nov. 30.
Steps No. 1 and No. 2 involve head-to-head winning percentage, which would be a moot point if Clemson, Miami and SMU all finish 8-0 since they don’t play each other.
Steps No. 3 and No. 4 involve winning percentage against common opponents. Clemson, Miami and SMU have two common opponents this season: Florida State and Louisville. But, again, that becomes a moot point if all three teams win out.
In this scenario, an ACC spokesman confirmed that the first procedure that could potentially break a tie among undefeated Clemson, Miami and SMU teams would be Step No. 5: “Combined win percentage of conference opponents.”
The spokesman said that metric would evaluate opponents’ records in conference games only. As an example, Florida State is currently 1-7 overall and 1-6 in the ACC. In this situation, the ACC would use the Seminoles’ conference record (1-6).
Here’s how the metric currently stands for the three teams, based on the combined ACC winning percentage of each team’s eight conference opponents for 2024 so far:
Clemson’s ACC opponents: 16-21, .432 winning percentage
Miami’s ACC opponents: 16-22, .421 winning percentage
SMU’s ACC opponents: 13-24, .351 winning percentage
So, if the season were to end today, Clemson and Miami would be the ACC’s two championship game participants and SMU would be left out.
Clemson would also be the No. 1 seed for the game in that situation, according to ACC tiebreaker policy, which says that the team with the “highest win percentage, either outright or after application of the tiebreaker” will be the No. 1 seed among the two representatives for the game played at Bank of America Stadium.
An ACC spokesman emphasized that, although this tiebreaker would be the first to potentially break a three-team tie in this situation, it “doesn’t necessarily guarantee that step five will resolve any portion of the tie.”
Although it’s another longshot, two of the three teams or all three teams in that situation could end up with the exact same opponent winning percentage.
In that situation, there are two final tiebreakers laid out in the ACC’s policy: Breaking the tie by which team has the higher ranking in SportsSource Analytics’ “Team Rating Score” after the end of the regular season (Step 6) and, as a last resort, the representatives being chosen via a draw (Step 7).
The draw would be administered by ACC commissioner Jim Phillips or someone else designated by Phillips, according to conference guidelines.
How likely is a three-team tiebreaker?
A lot of games have to go a certain way over the next month for a potential three-way tie among Clemson, Miami and SMU to remain even a remote possibility.
ESPN’s analytics give it a 6% chance of happening, per network researcher Bryant Ives, and ESPN writer Bill Connelley’s SP+ metric gives it a 3% chance of happening.
For one, all three teams have to finish undefeated in conference play, which is no small task in any league.
Clemson is currently 5-0 with three ACC games remaining (one at home, two on the road); Miami has four ACC games left (two at home, two on the road); and SMU has four conference games left as well (three at home, one on the road).
All three teams are favored in all of their remaining games, though, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) metric, which updates weekly.
The entire possibility could crumble this weekend when SMU hosts Pitt in Dallas this weekend in a meeting of unbeaten ACC teams. If the Panthers beat the Mustangs on the road, they could possibly join Clemson and Miami as undefeated ACC teams.
But since Pitt hosts Clemson later this season on Nov. 16, it’s impossible for all three of those teams (Pitt, Clemson and Miami) to all finish the season 8-0.
Pitt beating SMU and Clemson would also eliminate the chance of a three-way tie for first place at the ACC. In that scenario, only Miami and Pitt could be undefeated (since there are only four remaining unbeatens).
There are countless other outcomes, too, and any of the three teams losing a game at any point this month would alter league standings and tiebreakers dramatically.
But as long as Clemson, Miami and SMU keep winning, a tiebreaker based on conference opponents’ winning percentage remains alive … and could determine which two undefeated teams are playing for an ACC championship.
And, almost certainly, a first-round bye in the CFP.
Clemson’s remaining ACC schedule
No. 10 Clemson: 6-1, 5-0 ACC
- Saturday Nov. 2: vs. Louisville, 67.1% chance to win per
- Saturday Nov. 9: at Virginia Tech, 64.0% chance to win
- Saturday Nov. 16: at No. 18 Pitt, 65.4% chance to win
Miami’s remaining ACC schedule
No. 5 Miami: 8-0, 4-0 ACC
- Saturday Nov. 2: vs. Duke, 90.7% chance to win
- Saturday Nov. 9: at Georgia Tech, 75.9% chance to win
- Saturday Nov. 23: vs. Wake Forest, 96.4% chance to win
- Saturday Nov. 30: at Syracuse, 86.8% chance to win
SMU’s remaining ACC schedule
No. 20 SMU: 7-1, 4-0 ACC
- Saturday Nov. 2: vs. No. 18 Pitt, 70.2% chance to win
- Saturday Nov. 16: vs. Boston College, 85.4% chance to win
- Saturday Nov. 23: at Virginia, 75.9% chance to win
- Saturday Nov. 30: vs. Cal, 73.8% chance to win
All winning percentages via ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)
This story was originally published October 30, 2024 at 7:45 AM.
