3 things we know about South Carolina, 3 things we don’t at halfway point of 2020
South Carolina football’s regular season is halfway done. Taking stock of where things stand before the Gamecocks return to action Saturday against Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN).
We know: Kevin Harris is an above-average SEC running back
When star freshman MarShawn Lloyd went down in preseason camp with a torn ACL, Gamecock fans everywhere were understandably worried about the state of the running game — USC had just three other scholarship backs on the roster, with fewer than 70 career carries between them. Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo even said he’d likely rely on a “committee” approach to the position because there was no clear top option.
Five games later, and not only is there a clear top option in sophomore Kevin Harris, but he’s established himself as one of the SEC’s better tailbacks thus far. With 535 yards on 93 attempts for 5.8 yards per attempt and eight touchdowns, he ranks in the top three in the conference in all four categories. Coaches and teammates have raved about his hard-running, bowling ball style, but he’s also flashed some speed too, breaking off multiple long touchdown runs in which he won foot races with defenders.
Five games is too small a sample size to go ahead and label Harris “elite,” but he’s on that track, just like he’s on track to be South Carolina’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Mike Davis in 2013. He’s already rushed for the fourth most yards of any tailback during Will Muschamp’s tenure at USC.
We know: Jaycee Horn is great — but he can’t save the secondary alone
People paying close attention to South Carolina football the past two years knew Jaycee Horn was good. He was a starter as soon as he stepped on campus and has held down one cornerback spot ever since. But to the casual observer, his stats weren’t all that impressive — he didn’t even have an interception to his name.
Now, everyone knows Horn is a top-notch player. His two-pick, lockdown performance against Auburn was proof that when most teams are afraid to throw towards a certain corner, there’s a reason. The Tigers had high-level talent at receiver, but Horn simply won his matchup over and over.
But ... one likely NFL draft pick does not a full secondary make. Horn can only do so much, as LSU proved when it mostly avoided him and was able to successfully attack the Gamecocks with a freshman quarterback. With Israel Mukuamu seemingly healed up from a nagging groin injury, the potential for improvement is there, but defensive back units are often judged by their weakest link. Guys like R.J. Roderick, Jammie Robinson, John Dixon and Cam Smith have to play at a high level or they’ll be picked on all game long.
We know: The Mike Bobo hire has worked out
After Will Muschamp demoted offensive coordinator Bryan McClendon, he went in a new direction for the third OC of his South Carolina tenure, bringing in a guy in Mike Bobo with extensive play-calling experience, an SEC pedigree and even some time as a head coach.
And five games in, Bobo seems to have steadied the ship. The Gamecocks were, by almost any metric, terrible on offense last season. They never scored 30 points against an FBS opponent. They ran the third most plays per game in the SEC, but gained the fourth fewest yards per contest. They ranked outside the top 100 nationally in points per game, yards per play, passing efficiency, first downs and third down conversions.
Under Bobo, the Gamecocks have virtually no depth at wide receiver behind senior Shi Smith, precious little experience at the running back spot and a quarterback who’s not exactly scrambling and making plays out of nothing. But their scoring has gone up nearly a touchdown per game, their average yards per game have improved, even on fewer plays per game, and the third down conversion rate has jumped. The unit hasn’t been a juggernaut, but it hasn’t been a glaring, painful issue, and that’s progress.
We don’t know: Is Collin Hill locked in at quarterback?
Fair or unfair, a lot falls on the quarterback’s shoulders, and Collin Hill has a particularly heavy load to carry through this bye week as his less than stellar performance against LSU left a bad taste in a lot of fans’ mouths. Through five games, Hill has been far from a disaster, but he also hasn’t exactly set the world on fire either — 215.2 yards per game, five touchdowns, three interceptions, 61.5% completion rate, 6.9 yards per attempt, 126.2 rating, plus four rushing touchdowns.
None of those are top five marks in the SEC, but none are bottom three either. Hill won the job, in part, because of his familiarity with offensive coordinator Mike Bobo’s system, and the full extent of his value in that regard is hard to judge from the outside. How many calls is he changing at the line? How smoothly is he communicating and keeping everything running?
And on the flipside, there’s no way to know whether last year’s starter Ryan Hilinski or dual-threat freshman Luke Doty could do any better. But until and unless Hill starts looking like a pretty good-to-above average SEC quarterback, there will always be questions among the fan base as to whether the Gamecocks should make a change. And as of now, Hill simply hasn’t slammed the door shut on that conversation.
We don’t know: Will the run defense cost the Gamecocks?
Will Muschamp was clear after South Carolina’s loss to LSU — the defensive front wasn’t good against the run, and it hadn’t been for the last three weeks. It didn’t wind up mattering against Vanderbilt and Auburn, but the question of whether it gets better over the bye week could be especially crucial.
Of South Carolina’s five remaining opponents, only Texas A&M isn’t among the SEC’s top four teams by rushing attempts per game. Ole Miss, Missouri, Georgia and Kentucky have all averaged at least 39 attempts per game. The Aggies, meanwhile, lead the conference and are in the top 25 nationally in yards per rushing attempt.
If the Gamecocks’ opponents can run the ball successfully, that will tire out the defense and put pressure on the offense. And while the offense has improved from last year, it has not shown that it’s at the point where it can carry a weak defense or win a high-scoring duel.
We don’t know: How safe is Will Muschamp’s job?
This was supposed to be the prove-it year for Will Muschamp. In Year 5 of his tenure, many thought a 6-6 record at least would be necessary for him to keep his job, sizable buyout or not. But the massive financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, not to mention the 10-game, SEC-only schedule, changed the calculus for USC’s administrators.
At 2-3, the Gamecocks are pretty much where most people expected them to be at this point in the season. How the back half of the schedule unfolds is anyone’s guess — ESPN’s Football Power Index is projecting Carolina to go around 4-6, but in four of the remaining games, neither team has better than a 65% chance of winning in four of those remaining games.
Should the Gamecocks pull out at least two more wins and end the year a game shy of .500, it feels like a fairly safe bet to say Muschamp will be back in 2021. Should things fall apart down the stretch, the question becomes whether the financial impact of holding on to a coach in whom a lot of the fan base has lost faith outweighs the financial pain of paying more than $13 million for someone to go away amid a potential $58 million budget shortfall.
This story was originally published October 28, 2020 at 8:16 AM.
