How it started, how it’s going: The changing perception of the Gamecocks schedule
When South Carolina’s COVID-altered schedule was set, things didn’t look great for the Gamecocks.
They were projected to be underdogs in eight of 10 games, though there were enough tossups or semi-close games that more than two wins could be expected. There’s another discussion about what it means that in Year 5 under Will Muschamp the Gamecocks would have that kind of schedule crunch, but it seemed like the battle was going to be uphill.
Six games in, the Gamecocks are 2-4, which honestly seemed pretty realistic based on preseason projections. The theoretical hope was being able to take advantage of a few opponents with new coaches down the stretch.
But the start of the schedule doesn’t look quite as formidable as it once did, and the back stretch looks tougher. Combine that with South Carolina flat out playing worse than expected overall, and it makes for a tricky spot.
It’s worth reviewing what we thought each opponent would be and where things stand now through the lens of a now-stale meme: How it started. How it’s going.
vs. Tennessee
How it started: The Vols were either the hot team ready to make a jump or pretty overrated after feasting on a soft schedule late last year. Either way, they were at worst seen as a team that could get past .500 in the SEC and the kind of swing opponent that could boost South Carolina.
How it’s going (2-4): UT took liberal advantage of Gamecock mistakes in a tight win, and that’s one of the few good things that happened to the Vols. They lost to two powers, got smothered by Kentucky and just lost to Arkansas. Looking forward, they’ll have to either win at Auburn or beat Texas A&M at home to avoid 3-7.
at Florida
How it started: The Gators were supposed to be extremely good on both sides of the ball with the goal to finally break through against Georgia.
How it’s going (4-1): UF has been better on offense than expected but worse on defense. The Gamecocks hung closer than they probably had any right to in The Swamp, but then Florida dropped a shootout to Texas A&M. They got over the Georgia hump and project to cruise to an SEC East title.
at Vanderbilt
How it started: Derek Mason’s squad was projected to be very, very bad.
How it’s going (0-5): The Commodores have been notably worse than expected. South Carolina played fine and won by 34. The highlight of Vandy’s season is holding Texas A&M to 17 pounds in a loss.
vs. Auburn
How it started: The Tigers had a five-star sophomore quarterback, a four-star tailback coming in, a mess of receiver talent and a Kevin Steele defense. They were at worst supposed to be formidable — and possibly more if that offense grew together.
How it’s going (4-2): Things have been weird, which is normal at Auburn. They almost lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss. They were in a tight game with Kentucky. They lost to the Gamecocks, which looks not good in retrospect, and then crushed LSU. They should be 6-2 heading into a final stretch of Alabama and Texas A&M.
at LSU
How it started: Ed Orgeron’s Tigers were supposed to take a step back after losing half an NFL team and a pair of coordinators. But they also got a pair of expensive and touted replacement coaches and still had plenty of star talent. They were a wildcard because of that step back, but the question was how much.
How it’s going (2-3): The step taken back was ... about as bad as could be expected. They took upsets to Mississippi State (looking very bad), Missouri (just an OK team) and just got smothered by Auburn. Now the Tigers face Alabama game. LSU’s highlight of the year is crushing the Gamecocks with a freshman backup QB.
vs. Texas A&M
How it started: The Aggies were supposed to be good, on the cusp of great. They had their record depressed by a brutal schedule last season, but they also didn’t seem like they were doing a ton to threaten the top teams.
How it’s going (5-1): Jimbo Fisher’s squad had not been particularly dominant until facing the Gamecocks. They’d beaten Florida in the aforementioned shootout and comfortably secured the title as No. 2 team in the SEC West, with a case as second-best team in the conference.
Coming next for the Gamecocks ...
at Ole Miss
How it started: The Rebels had a lot of offensive pieces coming back, a questionable defense and had just hired an offensive-minded head coach with a turbulent history. They were expected to be dangerous but maybe not successful that quickly.
How it’s going (2-4): Lane Kiffin’s squad has, for the most part, played to form. Their only wins are against Vandy and a shootout win vs. Kentucky. They’re averaging 33 points a game in losses. They could very easily hang a bushel of points on USC and then challenge the Gamecocks to answer.
Missouri
How it started: The Tigers were mostly competent last season with a good defense and bad offense, though a bad finish and behind-the-scenes mishaps led to Barry Odom’s firing. Eli Drinkwitz inherited a team with a decent number of pieces back, but this was expected to be an OK first year of a build.
How it’s going (2-3): Mizzou looks like it’s in a Year 1, outside the fact that it popped LSU in a game moved by a hurricane. The Tigers are getting outscored by 10 points a game, got beat by Tennessee and smothered Kentucky. It’s a game in Williams-Brice, but Missouri has the feel of a team just feisty enough to cause issues depending on how far things fall for USC.
Georgia
How it started: This entirely depends on when one checked in on the team’s QB saga, between Jamie Newman being there, departing and word Southern Cal transfer JT Daniels would not be the starter. At worst Georgia was supposed to be a top-5 level team, maybe better if the offense broke through.
How it’s going (4-2): The Bulldogs are a shade worse than last season with QB questions abounding and an awesome defense despite giving up a massive day to Florida. If the Gamecocks were showing more fight, the meeting in Columbia might have a little more intrigue.
at Kentucky
How it started: The Wildcats were supposed to be pretty good with a veteran quarterback returning and a usually stout defense. Pretty good at UK usually means just below or just above .500 in conference play, enough to trip up a solid team not on its game.
How it’s going (2-4): The passing offense has been atrocious, the run game OK, the defense quite good. That approach got wins against not-great squads at Mississippi State and Tennessee. Most of the losses were close, often grinding. While UK’s ceiling isn’t high, it could handle USC if the Gamecocks are still in a bad way.
This story was originally published November 9, 2020 at 9:05 AM.
