How the Will Muschamp era stacks up to with the SEC coaches hired after him
There’s a through line from Will Muschamp to Jeremy Pruitt.
Each coach modestly exceeded expectations their first year at their current job. Each had what felt like a breakthrough in Year 2, winning nine and eight games, respectively, against schedules that opened up to a degree.
And each had a Year 3 that came short of bloated expectations. Muschamp at least got to a bowl and a .500 record in the SEC.
This year, Pruitt needs to pull an upset win to avoid going 3-7 with an all-SEC schedule.
Life for coaches is easier perception-wise early on. That’s just a fact. Coaches later in tenures get to hear “it’s Year 5 and (blank) is still happening.” They’ve burned through the hope and optimism of those first years. The promise and possibility settle into mundane reality.
As Muschamp’s future in Columbia remains a top topic, it’s worth looking at the other coaches who have joined the league when he did and afterward. Some are already gone. Some are showing a little promise.
—2016 cycle—
Kirby Smart, Georgia, record: 48-14
Smart was a South Carolina target before UGA rushed Mark Richt out the door to create an opening. The mandate was to have the program take the next step, and early on it did, winning the SEC and reaching the national title game his second year. One season later, the Bulldogs pushed Alabama in the SEC title game before blowing a lead. This year, they’re all but eliminated from the SEC East race. The tenure has been a resounding success, but lingering offensive questions are growing more and more prominent.
Barry Odom, Missouri, 25-25
Things got off to a rocky beginning, with a 5-13 start. But with quarterback Drew Lock at the helm, the Tigers turned things around. They won seven and eight games in consecutive years, though the SEC records weren’t particularly spiffy. His 2019 started well (5-1) but a five-game losing streak, in part impacted by QB injuries, included defeats to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. NCAA sanctions prevented a bowl trip, and some ill-fated behind-the-scenes maneuvering got Odom fired.
—2017—
Ed Orgeron, LSU, 41-11
He was a second choice after Tom Herman, and despite some rocky spots, he delivered. The Matt Canada experiment was a mess. His 2018 team lost a weird shootout to close the season. His current team is kind of a mess. But he won the 2019 national title with one of the best offenses the sport has ever seen. Even if things go south, he’s got that.
Matt Luke, Ole Miss, 15-21
He was technically fully hired a year later, but he coached the 2017 season, going 6-6 with a bowl ban and topping rival Mississippi State at year’s end. He had two teams with fun offenses. Neither was above .500. He was fired after an absurd Egg Bowl that turned, in part, on a player pretending to be a dog relieving itself.
—2018—
Dan Mullen, Florida, 25-6
He was reportedly the school’s third choice behind Scott Frost (9-17 at Nebraska) and Chip Kelly (7-18 at UCLA). He showed up and did what he does, which is maximize the offensive talent he has on hand. His first team won 10 games. His second won 11. His third is in command of the SEC East and might well still look for a new defensive coordinator at year’s end. He’s been near about as successful as one could expect.
Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M, 22-10
It cost the Aggies a lot of money to get him on board, and the results had been mixed until this year. His first team was solid; his second was handed five losses by top opposition. This year’s team is probably ranked a bit better than it has played, but it is in great shape to get to 9-1 with a case as second-best team in the SEC. And there’s still room to improve on that.
Joe Moorhead, Miss State, 14-12
After a stellar run as Penn State’s offensive coordinator, Moorhead seemed an unusual geographic fit in Starkville. His offense, which succeeded wildly with the Nittany Lions and at Fordham, didn’t fit the talent Mullen left, and the team went 8-5 with an all-timer of a defense. A year later, the Bulldogs went 6-6 in the regular season and won the Egg Bowl. But after a bowl loss was preceded by a practice fight that left two of the team’s better players sitting out, Moorhead was fired just after New Year’s.
Chad Morris, Arkansas, 4-18
The hire made sense on paper — an offensive wizard who had already started SMU on the path to a revival and made Clemson’s offense feared before that. He seemed the antidote to a Bret Bielema program that had not cashed in on its best teams and seen recruiting fall off. Instead, the tenure was a disaster. The Razorbacks didn’t win an SEC game, and their best victory in two years was against a 4-8 Colorado State team. Things ended when a Western Kentucky team whose quarterback Morris’ staff had pushed off the roster hung 45 on the Razorbacks.
Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee, 15-16
This was covered above. At the moment, his tenure looks like Years 1, 2 and 4 of Muschamp’s, but a win worse in each and without an upset like Georgia (though there’s time for that). Assuming he makes it to next year — not a guarantee — there will be a tremendous amount of pressure to get things turned around.
2019
None
2020
Mike Leach, Miss State, 2-4
The hire hit high gear quickly with an upset of LSU, but has fallen into a kind of grinding mess. The Bulldogs have beaten only Vanderbilt since that LSU win, and the Commodores were only down three in the fourth quarter. Leach has taken veiled shots at some of his players and fans. The roster has already seen some attrition and could see more.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss, 2-4
These Rebels are fun, that’s for sure. They’ve piled up points and pushed Alabama. They also coughed up seven turnovers to Arkansas and sit at 2-4, with the wins coming against Vandy and against Kentucky with a missed extra point in overtime.
Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri, 2-3
The Tigers also pulled off an early upset of LSU and they smothered Kentucky. But they’ve lost two games to far better teams (Alabama, Florida) and got tagged for 35 points by a now-listless Tennessee team. The back half should give a better indication of where things stand, but this is a program that had at least been mostly stable under the previous regime.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas, 3-3
This has been quite a turnaround because of how bad the Razorbacks looked under Morris. The win against Mississippi State was nice, though it hasn’t turned out to mean much. The other wins, Tennessee and Ole Miss, have been solid enough, but what’s more notable are the losses in which Arkansas has generally been competitive against top-15 teams in Texas A&M and Georgia, plus an Auburn team lingering at the fringes of the top 25.
In summary
Looking at all this, Muschamp is tied for the fifth-longest tenured coach in the conference. Four jobs that made hires the same time or after his have turned over. One of the men with a longer tenure, Vanderbilt’s Derek Mason, seems almost assured to be fired unless finances prevent it. Dissatisfaction is again rising around Gus Malzahn at Auburn.
Perhaps the most notable aspect of looking at the long game is how Muschamp’s program looked to be in very good shape after Year 2 and at least OK shape after Year 3. Half the league’s coaches haven’t even finished Year 3.
For the moment, Muschamp is where he is, trying to engineer a turnaround after a miserable two weeks. And while some of the coaches hired after him inspire some hope in their fan bases, it’s a reminder that most folks aren’t satisfied with where they are.
This story was originally published November 12, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
