Gamecocks basketball debuts in ESPN Bubble Watch. Consider Frank Martin a skeptic
Each time that talk of the South Carolina men’s basketball team’s chances at the NCAA tournament come up, Gamecocks coach Frank Martin comes back to a familiar refrain.
They don’t pick the teams until March 15. Until then it’s all just speculation and guesswork, and his team still has time to prove itself.
But USC this weekend did get a little recognition in that world of speculation and guesswork from ESPN after Saturday’s win over Tennessee.
The Gamecocks made their debut Sunday in the Bubble Watch, a rolling daily tracking of NCAA tournament hopefuls by ESPN analytics writer John Gasaway. South Carolina joined his 45 bubble teams he projects battling for 32 spots. He classifies them as a team with “work to do,” along with 27 other teams. (Meanwhile, 18 bubble teams earned the distinction of “should be in.”)
“Frank Martin’s team has won eight of its past 10 and now sits at 8-4 in SEC play,” Gasaway wrote about the Gamecocks. “The Watch has seen a bubble résumé or two in its day, but let the record show that South Carolina has one exceptionally strange profile. Yes, the Gamecocks’ NET ranking is low (mid-60s), but no lower than what Indiana was showing before the Hoosiers beat Iowa and no one was worked up over IU being invited to this bubble party. No, what’s really strange is not one but two bad losses at home, to Boston University and Stetson. Nevertheless, the Gamecocks are here, making a charge and touting their wins over Kentucky and Virginia.”
As of Monday morning, USC sits at 3-5 in Quad 1 games, and the Boston and Stetson losses sit at Quad 3 and Quad 4 respectively.
The quadrant system is one way the NCAA selection committee grades team’s wins and losses. The most coveted is a win in Quad 1: home games against top-30 opponents and road games against top-75 opponents qualify as Quad 1. Teams, meanwhile, want to minimize Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses.
Martin on Monday reiterated his stance, pointing out how South Carolina’s two-point win against Tennessee was followed by both teams moving up two spots in the NET ranking and the Gamecocks (64) remaining behind the Vols (62).
He went on to point out how he changed his usual plan of scheduling a Division II game to a buy game against Stetson, and noted the loss to the Hatters has now hurt his team’s résumé and NET rating. Asked what he’d like to see the selection committee focus on, Martin singled out a few things.
“Who you scheduled, where you played, who you beat, who you lost to,” Martin said. “That’s it. That’s all that matters.
“I’ve been in private rooms. They don’t look at the NET and say, ‘Hmm. So they’re 53, so they’re a 5 seed.’ No, that’s not the way it works.”
He pointed out how the old RPI system was easy to game with intelligent scheduling. He admitted his staff aims to avoid bad NET (formerly RPI) teams and just aims to build a slate with opponents Martin feels are “good teams.”
The coming weeks present both challenge and opportunity. The Gamecocks face a pair of Quad 1 games with a trip to Mississippi State and LSU at home. The next week, they’ll host a struggling Georgia team (100 in the NET ranking) and visit an Alabama team that sits in the top 40 of the NET, so another Quad 1 opportunity.
Getting to four Quad 1 wins and winning the other three regular season games would give the Gamecocks a 20-11 record and a solid profile heading into the SEC tournament. They project to be underdogs in the three Quad 1 games and favored in the other three, though only by a hair against Mississippi State at home.
This story was originally published February 17, 2020 at 10:03 AM.
