Figuring out South Carolina’s path in Nashville, what it could mean for NCAA hopes
After his team wrapped up win No. 18 this week, South Carolina basketball coach Frank Martin lamented the fact his squad has yet to play on Saturday in the conference tournament during his time in Columbia.
So what is it’s going to take to get the Gamecocks (18-12, 10-7 SEC) into the conference semifinals of next week’s SEC tournament in Nashville?
That starts with the path they’ll have to take, which grew a bit clearer Wednesday night.
With Florida winning, not to mention Auburn and LSU taking losses, South Carolina is locked out of the top four seeds for the SEC tournament that would have meant a double-bye. Any combination of ties goes to round robin record, and USC has losses to each team currently in the second through fourth spots, along with a split with Mississippi State.
First, the Gamecocks have a game to play this Saturday against a Vanderbilt team that upended Alabama on the road this week.
If the Gamecocks defeat Vanderbilt
Getting to 11-7 in conference means at worst finishing in a tie for fifth. In a two-way tiebreaker situation, the Gamecocks edge Mississippi State for a No. 5 seed. If Florida loses to Kentucky on Saturday to create a larger tie, round-robin scenarios have Mississippi State jumping USC and dropping them to sixth.
The difference between fifth and sixth is the difference between playing the winner of No. 12 vs. No. 13 or the winner of No. 11 vs. No. 14.. Vanderbilt is locked into the No. 14 seed, with Ole Miss, Missouri and Georgia tightly packed at 11-13. If Arkansas loses at Texas A&M this weekend, it could also slip to No. 11 for the conference tournament, an unappetizing prospect for any No. 5 seed.
With a win next Thursday at the SEC tournament, the No. 5 seed matches with No. 4 on Friday, while No. 6 draws No. 3. That situation is somewhat jumbled as Mississippi State could still get up to No. 4, and Florida, Auburn and LSU remain tied for second, with all matter of final order in play.
If the Gamecocks lose to Vanderbilt
If this happens, the Gamecocks fall to sixth with a Mississippi State win, but a Bulldogs loss puts USC back at No. 5. Both Texas A&M and Tennessee could tie South Carolina in the standings at 10-8, but none of those tiebreakers result in USC slipping behind either school.
That again means a USC win must happen next Thursday followed by a matchup with the No. 3 or 4 seed on Friday.
What it might mean
Martin has said he thinks his team has the top-end wins to make a good case for an NCAA tournament berth. If that’s the case, a No. 5 seed is an ideal situation because it allows one more win against a lower team before facing a game the following day against a top-40 NET team.
The Gamecocks are the last team in bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest “next four out,” suggesting one more big win could be needed for a compelling NCAA resume. That likely requires getting to Saturday in next week’s conference tournament — and that means two wins — and the spot Martin said he’s striving for his team to reach.
Figuring out a Friday opponent probably requires too many variables, suffice it to say, but it will almost assuredly be one of Florida, Auburn and LSU, unless Mississippi State manages to work its way up that high through tiebreakers. The Bulldogs currently sit just outside the NET top-50, the benchmark for a coveted Quad 1 win on a neutral floor.
One other monkey wrench would be Arkansas slipping to the No. 11 seed and USC managing to catch the Razorbacks in the first round. That’s a team that is plenty dangerous but would likely also not present a Quad 1 chance.
Next
What: South Carolina at Vanderbilt
When: 12:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Vanderbilt Memorial Gymnasium
TV: SEC Network
Radio: 107.5 The Game in Columbia area
This story was originally published March 5, 2020 at 3:16 PM.
