Gamecocks enter February with clear path to No. 1 seed, Greenville regional
As the calendar turns to February, projections of the NCAA tournament turn from mostly speculation to potential realities — while previous attempts at predicting the bracket were wildly dependent on future results and small sample sizes, teams have now played enough games to get a reasonable sense of where they might land on Selection Monday.
So, where does No. 1 South Carolina women’s basketball land in the most recent bracketology updates?
ESPN’s Charlie Creme unveiled his latest bracket Monday, and unsurprisingly, Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks remain the top overall seed in his field. As the No. 1 seed, USC would host the first two rounds at Colonial Life Arena and then, assuming it wins, play the next two at the closest regional, which this year is Greenville, South Carolina. The No. 4 seed that would potentially meet the Gamecocks in the Sweet 16 is DePaul, and the No. 2 seed in the region is Oregon State.
Russell Steinberg, from High Post Hoops, has the Gamecocks as the No. 1 seed as well, with UCLA as the No. 2 seed.
The most official source of them all, the NCAA selection committee, revealed its top 16 seeds and regional assignments Monday night on ESPN2, putting South Carolina at No. 1 overall as well, in the Greenville regional.
If that winds up being the case, South Carolina’s path to the Final Four in New Orleans wouldn’t leave the state. Two other teams in Creme’s projection are in similar scenarios; Baylor is the No. 1 seed in the Dallas regional, and Oregon is the No. 1 in the Portland regional. In all cases, fans wouldn’t have to drive more than two hours to see their teams compete in the Sweet 16/Elite Eight.
At this point, Carolina’s case for the top overall seed is clear — the Gamecocks have more wins over top-50 RPI teams (10) than anyone else in the country. None of the other No. 1 seeds in Creme’s projection (Louisville, Oregon, Baylor) have more than seven. With seven wins over top-25 opponents and three over top-10 ones, USC’s strength of schedule ranks in the top 15 nationally, according to WarrenNolan.com.
And just as the Gamecocks now have some valuable breathing room in the race for the SEC regular season title, they may still be able to withstand a loss and stay on the No. 1 seed line.
At this point, the main contenders for the four No. 1 seeds are South Carolina, Oregon, Baylor, Louisville and UConn. Below them, Stanford, UCLA and Oregon State have all picked up multiple losses, including one each to an unranked opponent. North Carolina State has an unranked loss as well and has yet to play to Louisville.
The biggest, most obvious threat remaining on USC’s schedule is next Monday’s game against top-five UConn, who first has to play Oregon. If the Huskies win that game and then upset Carolina, they’ll likely move up to a No. 1 seed, and South Carolina would be competing with Oregon for the last remaining top slot, but the Ducks would have three losses to USC’s two, with roughly similar strength of schedule and RPI numbers.
If UConn loses to Oregon and beats South Carolina, things would get a little more complicated — how much would the committee value South Carolina’s other top-25 RPI wins compared to the relatively weaker schedules of ACC’s best teams, Louisville and N.C. State?
In the meantime, South Carolina’s path forward is clear — keep winning, and the No. 1 seed in Greenville and an in-state road to the Final Four is within the Gamecocks’ grasp.
When do the Gamecocks play next?
Who: No. 1 South Carolina (21-1, 9-0 SEC) vs. No. 25 Arkansas (17-4, 5-3 SEC)
When: 8:30 p.m. Thursday
Where: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Watch: SEC Network
Listen: 1320 AM/107.5 FM in Columbia area
This story was originally published February 3, 2020 at 2:43 PM.
