Is this the year USC takes down UConn? ‘Dawn’s got more pieces in the chess match’
When South Carolina women’s basketball welcomes UConn to Colonial Life Arena on Monday, there will be a clear favorite, a team with the wins on its resume, the talent and the depth that put it above the other so far this season.
And it won’t be Connecticut.
Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks have been No. 1 in the country once before when they played the Huskies. But this year is different. This year, top-ranked USC has dispatched opponents with ruthless efficiency, while No. 4 UConn has struggled at times and already lost twice, to Baylor and Oregon teams ranked below Carolina in the AP poll. Warren Nolan’s R1 prediction ratings have the Gamecocks as solid 8-point favorites.
In short, this looks like South Carolina’s best chance yet at snapping an eight-game losing streak to the bluest of blue bloods, including six defeats in the past five years under Staley
“She put them on the schedule (starting several years ago) ... because that’s what you do, you want to measure yourself up against the best, see where you are,” national analyst Debbie Antonelli told The State. “You play a game like that, if you do have any weaknesses or anything, you will get exposed, (UConn coach Geno Auriemma) will have a blueprint for how to beat you, and that makes you better.
“And of course now going into this matchup with them, now the attitude is, ‘No, we’re gonna beat them, we can beat them, we should beat them, we know we can beat them if we play our game.’”
Staley herself has said on more than one occasion that the series has helped grow women’s basketball, even as it has not yet resulted in a win for South Carolina.
“I don’t prefer to play it in the middle of our conference [Friday] because we’re coming off a tough road win here in Arkansas, we’re going to get back late,” Staley told reporters after Thursday’s game. “We wanted to practice a little bit [Friday] but we probably won’t be able to do that and then go play them. But I think it’s great for the women’s game.”
How great would it be for South Carolina to finally beat UConn, though? ESPN has already asked going into the matchup who has more at stake, with bracketologist Charlie Creme voicing the thoughts of many around the sport in saying UConn does — a loss would likely end the Huskies’ hope of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and might even put them in danger of a No. 3 seed.
South Carolina, meanwhile, seems headed to a No. 1 seed in the Greenville region. Even a loss Monday might not change that, Creme wrote.
Still, from a larger historical perspective, there’s something about beating UConn — Oregon star Sabrina Ionescu said after defeating the Huskies that her team should be the barometer by which other squads judge themselves, but only seven programs have defeated Connecticut in the past decade. For comparison, 12 programs, not including UConn, have made the Final Four in the same stretch.
“Over the last decade, it’s been, the championship has gone through UConn. You’ve had to beat them,” Antonelli said. “So I definitely think that there is still something to say about beating a team that was the dynasty, right? It was the program that people talked about: Are they good or bad for the game because they’re so good? Well, of course they’re good for the game. So I think it’s still measurable; it still matters.”
A win Monday won’t validate South Carolina’s season — the Gamecocks have bigger goals like conference and national titles in their sights. And by the same token, a loss won’t ruin it. But beyond this season, a victory would strike yet another blow to UConn’s dynasty, a dynasty that can be so intimidating, opposing teams are overwhelmed before they even play the Huskies.
“When you play UConn, you play the tradition, you play the national championships, and you can’t play that,” Staley said on the SEC Network after beating Arkansas. “You have to play on Monday night in Colonial Life Arena, hopefully with 18,000 FAMs screaming, yelling and cheering us on, hopefully to a victory.”
And victory seems more attainable than ever. Great coaching matchups like the ones between Auriemma and Staley are often compared to chess matches, but UConn’s won each of the games in the series by double digits. This year, the set-up feels far different.
“If you were going to use the chess analogy, I think you’d say Dawn’s got the king and the queen, and she’s going to be one move ahead, because she has more options that she can go to,” Antonelli said. “She has more depth, she has more options defensively with how to guard them, and who to put on different matchups ... Dawn’s got more pieces in the chess match.”
WHEN DO THE GAMECOCKS PLAY UCONN?
Who: No. 1 South Carolina (22-1, 10-0 SEC) vs. No. 4 UConn (20-2, 10-0 American)
When: 7 p.m. Monday
Where: Colonial Life Arena
What TV channel: ESPN2
Listen: 107.5 FM in Columbia area
