If he’s a go, No. 1 golfer the pick to win his first green jacket

Now, we wait and see if gravity has done what the rest of the PGA Tour hadn’t been able to do in 2017 – slow down Dustin Johnson.

The Columbia native was poised to enter the 81st Masters as the No. 1 player in the world and prohibitive betting favorite. That is now in doubt after the Associated Press reported Wednesday evening that Johnson fell down the stairs in his Augusta rental home and “hopes” to be able to make his tee time Thursday afternoon. The report cited Johnson’s manager David Winkle of Hambric Sports.

Until that report, it looked like Johnson was set to do something that hasn’t been done in 15 years. That’s the last time the world’s No. 1 golfer won the Masters was in 2002. That year it was Tiger Woods, who is sitting out this year’s event because of a chronic back issue. If Johnson’s reported discomfort abates and he’s able to play the next four days, he looks immune to the kind of pressure that usually takes down the favorite here.

He was asked this week about his mental preparation for each shot.

“It’s not too much,” he said. “I get my (distance) and kind of where I want to hit it and try to picture the shot going in.”

His habit of not over thinking his game or the game in general could be his second-biggest asset this week.

“When it’s going well, it’s that simple,” Johnson said. “When it’s not going so well, it gets a little more complicated.”

The game hasn’t been complicated this year. That’s his biggest asset. In 26 competitive, non-match play rounds, Johnson has shot a 66 or better almost as many times (seven) as he’s shot 70 or worse (eight). In his last three, non-match play events, he has nine rounds in the 60s compared with three in the 70s. In his one match play event, he beat Webb Simpson, Martin Kaymer, Jimmy Walker, Zach Johnson, Alex Noren, Hideto Tanihara and Jon Rahm, all of whom he will be competing with again this week.

Phil Mickelson, a three-time champion here, talked this week about the value of not making the game too difficult.

“I think not over thinking things gives people the freedom to go out and play and not get in their own way,” he said. “If you’re playing well, no matter what golf course you’re on, whether it’s Augusta National, a U.S. Open setup or any other course, if you play well, the course is there to be had.”

Augusta National, as odd as it might sound to say, is there to be had for Johnson this week. If the wind is kind to him Thursday afternoon, he could put up some small numbers on wet and receptive greens.

The course is generally thought to favor a right-to-left game, which Johnson last year eschewed off the tee, replacing his draw with a fade off the tee. While that might not sound like a recipe for success at Augusta, it has paid dividends in accuracy for Johnson, and he won’t hit any draws with the driver this week, he said. If a hole, No. 10 for instance, calls for a draw, he’ll use his 3-wood.

With his irons, Johnson has made a yearlong effort to improve his accuracy, working every day on three separate shots with his wedge, a half shot, a three-quarters shot and a full shot.

“There’s no rocket science behind it,” he said. “It’s just pretty simple. It’s helped me a lot with just distance control. Just knowing exactly how far my wedges go, and it’s something that I never really had done before.”

Johnson is the sports book favorite at 6-to-1, followed closely by Jordan Spieth at 7-to-1 and Rory McIlroy at 15-to-2. If you’re looking for long betting odds that might pay off, Noren is 100-to-1 despite being ranked No. 10 in the world entering his first Masters. No Masters rookie, like Noren, has won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller did it in 1979, but Mickelson thinks that’s easier to do than it used to be.

“It’s much easier for a first‑timer to win here because the greens have been so much more receptive since the course has been lengthened and the greens aren’t the only defense,” he said. “What that allows you to do is miss it in a spot that normally would be bad but get away with it because the greens are more receptive.”

That being said, Noren and everyone else will be playing for second place this year. If Johnson can make it to the tee box Thursday.

This story was originally published April 5, 2017 at 6:51 PM with the headline "If he’s a go, No. 1 golfer the pick to win his first green jacket."