Massive coronavirus outbreak could fill, overwhelm SC hospitals, Harvard predictions say

If South Carolina were to experience a massive outbreak of the coronavirus, affecting 20% of the state’s population within six to 12 months, hospitals across the state could struggle to find enough beds for patients, according to data from the Harvard Global Health Initiative.

The data, which predicts the number of hospital beds needed if about 1 million South Carolinians were infected, shows the shortage would become even more dire if the percentage of South Carolinians infected increased, according to projections if 40 or 60% of the population becomes infected with COVID-19.

One million infected South Carolinians far surpasses projections from the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control released Wednesday. State health officials say they expect to see 2,600 cases of the coronavirus by April 2 and more than 8,000 cases by May 2.

As of Thursday afternoon, South Carolina health officials had identified 456 cases of COVID-19, nine of which had resulted in death.

One million coronavirus patients also far surpasses the number of cases nationwide as of Wednesday night — the U.S. had 54,453 cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — about double the number of cases worldwide.

Data from the Harvard Global Health Initiative showed that South Carolina has about 4,000 available hospital beds. That number does not include beds in intensive care units.

According to the data:

• If 20% of the Palmetto State’s population contracted the coronavirus in six months, the state would need at total of 10,640 beds — two and a half times the number currently available.
• If 20% of the state’s population got COVID-19 over 12 months, the state would need a total of 5,300 beds, or about 1,320 more than are available.
• If a fifth of South Carolinians get sick over six to twelve months, the state will need to more than double its number of ICU beds to handle the demand, according to the data.

In the Columbia-area alone, hospitals would not be able to manage 20% of the population getting sick over six to twelve months, according to the data.

The need would be even higher around Greenville and Rock Hill, according to the data. Even if the spread of COVID-19 was spaced out over 18 months, hospitals in the Rock Hill area would not have enough space, according to the data.

If the projections increase the number of people contacting the coronavirus to 40% or 60%, the situation becomes more dire, with hospitals struggling to handle patients even if the spread of the disease is spread out over 18 months. For example, if 60% of the state’s population contracts COVID-19 over 18 months, the Palmetto State would still be short about 6,400 beds, according to the projections.

In that scenario, the need for ICU beds would be even more prominent. South Carolina has about 469 available ICU beds, but would need more than 2,200 to handle 60% of the population being sick over even 18 months.

Others have predicted that hospitals would be hurting for space before hitting 1 million infected. Predictions made by South Carolina scientist Jim Morris — the director emeritus of USC’s Belle W. Baruch Institute for Marine and Coastal Science who specializes in using data to make mathematical predictions of future events — estimated that the state could reach hospital bed capacity in less than 20 days.

In a letter to Gov. Henry McMaster, Morris predicted the state could run out of ventilators sooner than that, Morris said.

“The worst is coming, and the sooner we deal with this the sooner we can recover,” Morris wrote.

Wednesday afternoon, DHEC officials said South Carolina hospitals were at 57% capacity. As the virus spreads, the CDC predicts that about 80% of people with COVID-19 will not require hospitalization.

State health officials have pushed back on Morris’ estimates, saying his projections are based on a previous large jump in cases in one day, which was caused by a testing delay rather than actual spread.

Schipp Ames, a vice president with the S.C. Hospital Association, said the state has seen an increase of about 1,800 in available hospital beds since McMaster recommended postponing elective surgeries.

McMaster has also taken other steps to slow the spread of the coronavirus, including closing public schools through April, ordering police to disperse groups gathered on public beaches, ordering restaurants to close their dining rooms and allowing law enforcement to break up gatherings of three or more people.

The Lexington Medical Center built a new 100-bed patient care tower a year ago, but hospital officials currently don’t have actual beds or equipment in the tower yet, hospital spokeswoman Jennifer Wilson said.

“We’re working hard to acquire them, but that’s difficult right now because hospitals and health care organizations across the country are all doing the same thing,” Wilson said.

Prisma Health, one of the largest hospital systems in South Carolina, converted its North Greenville Hospital to a center dedicated to caring for patients with the coronavirus, moving patients with other ailments to other locations.

In the Midlands, Prisma officials are operating their four hospitals as one large one with about 1,000 bed hospital, moving patients to other hospitals if needed, said Dr. Steve Shelton, incident commander of Prisma Health’s Midlands response.

Based on the progression of the spread of COVID-19 in the state, Shelton said officials at Prisma are concerned about having enough beds to handle the influx of coronavirus patients, Shelton said.

“We have to be prepared for it,” Shelton said. “Again, you never know what the future is going to hold specifically.”

Once licensed beds, which are typicallyused to care for these kind of patients, are filled, hospital officials would evaluate whether beds in recovery, outpatient surgery or radiology observation areas could be used to house COVID-19 patients, Shelton said. Currently, Prisma Health officials are planning for the possibility of this option.

After those beds are filled, hospital officials plan to move outside of the hospital into tents, warehouses and other buildings, he added.

“We’re dedicated to the community, making sure they’re protected,” Shelton said “We want to make sure we are meeting their needs.”

Along with predictions of future bed shortages, South Carolina officials have struggled with the need for more medical supplies.

Last week, the state received a shipment from a national stockpile of medical supplies, but many items were expired. DHEC officials are expecting a second shipment from the national supply, which will be distributed to counties by early next week.

“We’re pleased to know we’re receiving a second shipment so close because all providers are still running low of supplies,” DHEC director Rick Toomey said.

Hospital systems across the state have found innovative ways to battle the shortages.

Wednesday night, Prisma Health unveiled a new device that would allow a single ventilator to support four patients at once. And the Medical University of South Carolina announced a plan Thursday to begin 3-D printing protective masks for health care workers.

Emily Bohatch

The State

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Emily Bohatch helps cover South Carolina’s government for The State. She also updates The State’s databases. Her accomplishments include winning multiple awards for her coverage of state government and of South Carolina’s prison system. She has a degree in Journalism from Ohio University’s E. W. Scripps School of Journalism. Support my work with a digital subscription