SC likely has more than 16,000 cases of coronavirus, health officials estimate
The number of people with the coronavirus in South Carolina is about seven times higher than the number of people actually confirmed to have the disease, according to newly released state health department statistics.
Though South Carolina health officials have reports of 2,417 positive cases of the coronavirus, the actual estimated number of infections in the state is approaching 17,000, according to data released Tuesday by the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control.
According to DHEC’s new estimates, there are likely 16,853 cases of COVID-19 in South Carolina as of April 6.
That means almost 86% of cases of COVID-19 have not been tested or identified, according to a State newspaper analysis of the DHEC data.
DHEC officials believe for every known case of COVID-19, there could be up to nine people with the virus who have not been tested, a spokesperson for the S.C. State Emergency Response Team said. The estimates were calculated using that assumption.
An earlier DHEC forecast said the state may have more than 8,000 cases by early May, but department spokeswoman Laura Renwick said that refers to a projection of confirmed cases. The nearly 17,000-case estimate includes unconfirmed and undiagnosed cases, Renwick said.
From county to county, the percentage of undiagnosed cases ranges from 81% to almost 98%, according to the most recent DHEC data.
The percentage of undiagnosed cases is highest in some rural counties, which have one or no hospitals. For example, in Dillon County, which has one hospital, DHEC officials estimate that nearly 98% of cases have not been identified.
Previously, state epidemiologist Linda Bell has said a lack of cases in rural counties is likely due to a lack of access to testing.
In Richland County, experts estimate that there are 1,850 undiagnosed cases, about 84% of the total likely positive cases in the county. In neighboring Lexington County, DHEC officials estimate there are 653 undiagnosed cases, or about 83% of the total possible cases.
Two state legislators from Columbia said the numbers are sobering.
DHEC’s estimates show the potential breadth of the infection and underscore the need for people to avoid contact with each other, they said. Some people may have the disease and not show any symptoms, one lawmaker said.
“I’m glad DHEC is putting these numbers out so people don’t minimize the risk of encountering people who are asymptomatic,’’ Sen. Dick Harpootlian, D-Richland, said. “Clearly these numbers indicate that there’s a bunch of folks who could be walking around out there (who are infected). The risk is much greater than what was originally perceived.’’
Rep. Seth Rose, D-Richland, called the number of potentially undiagnosed coronavirus cases “deeply concerning.’’
Rose said the numbers also reinforce why South Carolina should have taken more aggressive steps to stop social contact sooner. Gov. McMaster finally took action Monday that should help, but the Republican governor was late, Rose said.
In the ZIP code that includes the Shandon-Wales Garden area of Columbia, which Harpootlian and Rose represent, DHEC has confirmed 10 cases of the coronavirus, but estimates are that another 61 that have not yet been diagnosed.
Harpootlian said the number of estimated but unconfirmed cases shows how weak the nation’s system of testing people has been. He said the United States was unprepared for the extent of a pandemic like the coronavirus outbreak.
Kershaw County, where the coronavirus first was identified in significant numbers, has an estimated 921 cases that have not yet been diagnosed. The county has 159 diagnosed cases, according to DHEC.
Undiagnosed cases are estimated in every county and in most ZIP codes, but some leaders in Dillon County said they wanted to know more about how DHEC arrived at its projections of undiagnosed cases.
Phil Wallace, a doctor and member of the Dillon City Council, said he’s aware of two coronavirus cases that were diagnosed in the rural county along the North Carolina border, east of Florence.
One of the cases involved a person from Brooklyn, New York, who was traveling through the area, he said. Another case was from a Marlboro County man who had been on a plane with a woman who had recently traveled to Italy, he said.
“I don’t know that we are a big hidden nest of coronavirus that has not been diagnosed,’’ he said.
But at the same time, Wallace said it wouldn’t be surprising if more cases arise in the Dillon area because it is a gateway to South Carolina. Interstate 95 runs through Dillon County, home to South of the Border, a major stopover for food and gasoline.
Elsewhere, Charleston County likely has 1,816 unidentified and untested cases, accounting for about 86% of the county’s estimated cases.
Beaufort County has one of the smallest percentages of undiagnosed cases, with 973 estimated suspected cases, or about 85% of the total. Greenville County has the smallest difference in undiagnosed cases, but according to DHEC data, about 82% of possible cases in the county have gone uncounted.
Near Charlotte, York County has a projected 686 undiagnosed cases, or about 86% of total cases, according to the data. And on the northern coast, Horry County likely has about 514 cases that are suspected positive, or about 85% of the total estimated by health officials.
DHEC’s estimates Tuesday updated initial projections released Monday.
This story was originally published April 7, 2020 at 9:50 AM.
