Columbia could again see floods like last year’s

The deluge that swamped South Carolina almost a year ago showed people in the Columbia area that flooding isn’t just a coastal issue — which is a lesson folks should never forget, scientists and weather experts said Wednesday.

Columbia, the state’s largest city, suffered extensive damage last October when the massive storm hovered over South Carolina and dropped more than 1.5 feet of rain in 24 hours on the Midlands.

Thousands of people fled to higher ground as creeks rose in heavily developed parts of the area. Dams from Lexington to Forest Acres burst and streams spilled their banks. Water reached the rooftops of many homes, while intersections flooded. Nine people died in the disaster.

Hope Mizzell, South Carolina’s state climatologist, said the public needs to be prepared for the next storm.

“Let's (remember) when it comes to disasters,'' Mizzell said during a climate conference Wednesday in Charlotte.

Mizzell and Gregory Carbone, a researcher at the University of South Carolina, said last fall’s storm seemed to surprise many people in the Columbia area. Rain fell throughout the day on Saturday, Oct. 3, but didn’t intensify until after midnight. Residents of South Carolina’s coast are aware of flooding’s dangers because they have the added threat of high tides, she said

"Our coastal counties do a better job of talking about flooding, but inland flooding has just not received the attention it needs,'' Mizzell said.

The Oct. 4 storm was an unusual weather system commonly referred to as a 1,000-year rainfall. But that doesn't mean the state won't see another storm of that magnitude for 1,000 years, Mizzell and others said.

The 1,000-year-rainfall designation is merely a way experts use of measuring the probability of such a storm. In fact, big storms could affect the state for several years in a row, researchers said.

“We’re kidding ourselves if we think, ‘Oh, we just had a big flood in October, we’re not going to see it again,’” said Toby Feaster, a researcher with the U.S. Geological Survey who has studied last fall’s flood.

Before last fall, the last major disaster many people remembered was Hurricane Hugo, a killer storm that wrecked the state in 1989. But even Hugo didn’t have the same rainy impact on Columbia as last fall’s storm.

Wednesday’s discussion occurred during a presentation at the Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference, a three-day event to raise awareness about climate change and discuss ways to prepare for the impacts.

The conference drew hundreds of people to Charlotte and featured speakers such as former South Carolina Congressman Bob Inglis, a Republican and former climate change skeptic who now says the issue needs to be dealt with. The University of South Carolina coordinated the conference.

Rising carbon levels in the atmosphere are causing the earth’s climate to heat up, and that’s creating a variety of problems, most scientists agree. Among those is the intensity of storms, many scientists say.

Last fall's flood occurred when a weather system sat over the state for days. Those who have studied the event say it was like a “firehose’’ of precipitation pointed straight at South Carolina.

For all its devastation, however, the October storm wasn't as bad as it could have been, said Mizzell and Feaster. Flooding in Columbia and other inland areas has been worse in the past, Feaster said.

Feaster provided statistics showing that peak river levels on the Congaree at Columbia were actually higher in floods of 1908 and 1936 than in 2015.

Mizzell also noted that the October flood occurred after a summer drought. Had the state experienced normal summer rainfall, soils and creeks would have contained more water, which could have added to the flooding.

In retrospect, Mizzell said, "We are very thankful for that drought.''　　

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This story was originally published September 14, 2016 at 7:14 PM with the headline "Columbia could again see floods like last year’s."