SC hasn’t met key White House guideline to reopen. McMaster opened some businesses anyway
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said he made the decision to reopen some businesses Monday by looking at the “science” and “data” — even though the state hasn’t seen a steady decline in new coronavirus cases.
But the decision, which he says he made after consulting with President Donald Trump and other governors, runs counter to what Trump’s White House has recommended as the conditions states should meet before reversing stay-at-home orders or lifting restrictions on businesses.
The most obvious recommended condition of reopening that is missing in South Carolina is 14 days of declining case numbers or a decline in the percentage of coronavirus tests with positive results.
“We have not yet seen a consistent decline in case reports,” said Linda Bell, the state epidemiologist, when asked Monday at McMaster’s press conference announcing the business openings whether the state was meeting the White House guidelines for reopening.
Instead, the state has seen ups and downs in new case reports, shifting numbers Bell attributed to both increases in disease activity and to delays in getting test results back.
“What we’re seeing is a potential leveling off of the number of cases reported. At this time we don’t have good trend data to say we are actually having a consistent decline in the course. We are seeing a plateau of a few days. What we would like to see is a significant downward trend that lasts for at least 14 days to be more comfortable about the disease activity in the community.”
Asked Monday why he wasn’t following the White House guidelines, McMaster said the White House guidelines are just that.
“Those are guidelines. We’re following guidelines. That’s not the law,” McMaster said. “We have information here from our professionals here in South Carolina as well and we go by that as well.”
McMaster’s order on Monday came as the state’s total number of coronavirus cases surpassed 4,400 and as deaths from COVID-19, the sometimes serious respiratory disease caused by the virus, surpassed 120.
The order, which came about 20 days after McMaster ordered the first nonessential businesses in the state to close, allowed the reopening of some retail businesses where social distancing could take place, the same day he announced parameters of Accelerate SC, a group of nearly 30 elected officials, medical professionals and business leaders among others, who will make recommendations on how to reopen the economy.
Asked repeatedly to point to the data informing his decision to reopen, McMaster offered no specifics, noting instead the “compliance” and “common sense” South Carolinians have been exhibiting in response to his orders and recommendations for social distancing, the practice of limiting interactions with others to prevent the spread of disease.
“We are ready to take some steps to assure our economic health is as strong as our public health,” said McMaster who added he has been taking a measured and deliberate approach.
Still, his move Monday had some critics.
Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin said the city, which put in place a stay-at-home order before the governor did, said common sense isn’t something that can be measured and, therefore, isn’t a good metric on which to base decisions.
“In Columbia, we pay attention to data, we want to see deceleration of COVID-19 cases over a 14-day period, which I believe is what the White House is calling for,” Benjamin said. “We’re going to focus on the data, and not an arbitrary date we believe it’s smart to re-open business.”
Moreover, said Benjamin, opening businesses has to be combined with testing so we know if someone is infected with COVID-19 to help people feel assured of their safety.
“If you re-open the economy, but the consumer confidence isn’t there, the customers won’t show up,” Benjamin said.
As some described it, the governor is walking a tightrope balancing the need for protecting the public health and allowing the economy to function.
“I believe the governor is trying to a complex dance — don’t socialize, don’t transmit, but still participate in the economy,” state Rep. Neal Collins, R-Pickens, told The State in a text message. “It’s messaging I don’t envy.”
Collins added he supports the governor’s decision to gradually reopen businesses, noting the move sends a message that the state needs to get ready to reopen the economy.
The decision by McMaster, a long ally of the president, to allow some retail shops to reopen comes as other southeastern governors look to do similar things in their states.
Efforts to reopen also follow Trump’s calls for protests against restrictions on the economy in Democrat-led states. Protests, which haven’t been limited to blue states, have taken place in Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri and Colorado, among other places.
Experts say wait for decline in cases
McMaster has said his decisions about closing and reopening businesses have come from a desire to “cause the most damage possible to the virus, while doing the least possible damage ... to our businesses.”
But state health officials have abstained so far from making predictions that the worst is over for South Carolina.
Officials say there are some signs that social distancing measures have helped blunt the spread of the virus in the state. DHEC has lowered its projections of how many cases will be identified in South Carolina, going from more than 8,000 by May 2 to 6,900 by May 9.
The University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects the Palmetto State has passed its peak usage of hospital beds, and the peak of the number deaths. The institute previously projected the peak to be in late April or early May.
However, health experts have recommended the need for increased testing and the ability to increase contact tracing before lifting restrictions or relaxing social distancing guidelines.
Acknowledging that testing is inadequate in some parts of the state, Bell said on Monday that DHEC is looking to increase testing around the state to identify cases that have not been reported.
“We don’t have a great deal of certainty about what to expect,” Bell said.
Scientists studying the coronavirus also say an increase in testing and falling case numbers are necessary to ensure safely reopening the economy.
Stephen Kissler, post doctoral researcher at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said that 14 consecutive days of results of COVID-19 tests are necessary to get a true picture of where a state is in the present.
“If we have observed infections declining for 14 days, then we can be sure that actual new cases are declining — because the picture of what we have right now is really a better representation of what we had 7 to 14 days ago,” Kissler said.
What a state needs to be wary of is not creating a “second wave.”
After social distancing leads to a decrease in infections, states could see a second wave of spread after businesses reopen if not handled the right way. The fear is fewer people would take precautions, while a large group of people would remain susceptible to catching the virus, ”and that could cause cases to rise again,” Kissler said.
Testing is also important, according to Kissler and other experts. Testing shows who has been infected and if they have been, then they should be quarantined so as not to infect others. One aspect of COVID-19 is that it transfers from person to person easily through breath and touch.
‘Can’t be scared ... forever’
In the uncharted waters of the pandemic, there is little consensus among the state’s leaders about how great a risk the state still faces.
State Sen. Dick Harpootlian, D-Richland, criticized McMaster for failing to follow the White House recommendations, adding the governor is playing a dangerous game.
“My small business is shut down — I understand the trauma people are going through — but if we open too early, we risk the chance of a second wave.”
Harpootlian even called protests around the country shortsighted, as people who are carriers of the disease can infect people even if they’re not showing symptoms.
“It’s not just about them,” Harpootlian said. “It’s about the rest of us, and the elderly.”
In contrast, state Rep. Todd Rutherford, another Richland Democrat, said McMaster’s move was the right one.
“At some point we’ve got to balance the risk with the standard operating procedure of business in South Carolina,” Rutherford said.
Though Rutherford said both McMaster and Trump should have reacted more quickly to the virus, allowing reopening of some businesses with proper social distancing requirements is the correct move, he said, adding there is other evidence it’s time.
He argued that hospitals have not been overrun by patients with the virus.
DHEC has reported that only 22% of people who tested positive for the virus have been hospitalized when they were ill, and as of Wednesday, only 57% of hospital beds in the state are occupied, when including patients in hospitals for other reasons.
Rutherford added there are people who contracted the disease who are getting better.
Rutherford said the re-openings with the capacity restrictions are far from going back to normal.
“You can tell people right now, they could sit in a restaurant ... but most people are not going to go,” Rutherford said.
“I think we’re still scared to death of each other, and I think we should be,” he said. “Until there’s a cure, we need to be scared to death. However, we can’t be scared to death forever, otherwise more hospitals are going to close, more nurses and doctors are going to be laid off. And we won’t be prepared for a second wave.”
Reporter John Monk contributed to this report.
