A shakeup in power rankings among who’s most likely to win SC GOP primary. Who’s up, who’s down?
The 2024 presidential race is in full swing, with 14 declared Republican candidates seeking the White House. And in order to get to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., candidates have to do well in South Carolina.
Already, there’s movement among who stands the best chance to win the state’s First in the South primary, as political experts weigh in for The State’s second South Carolina GOP presidential primary power rankings.
A lot has happened since our first ranking in June.
Candidates have posted millions in second-quarter fundraising totals — some vastly more than others — and former President Donald Trump has been indicted for a third time, now for efforts to overturn the 2020 election, while he makes another bid for his former job. He is expected to be indicted in Georgia for efforts to change that state’s 2020 results.
Winning the South Carolina primary is important. The winner of the First in the South Primary has gone on to win the Republican nomination every cycle since 1980, except in 2012.
The State asked six political observers to rank their top five of who they thought had the best chance to win the South Carolina Republican Presidential primary, if it were held today. (The rankings were received over the last two weeks, with some voters submitting their rankings before Trump’s third indictment was filed.)
A first place vote received five points, a second place vote received four points, a third place vote received three points, a fourth place vote received two points, and a fifth place vote received one point.
Also receiving votes: Former Vice President Mike Pence (1 point) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (2 points).
Dropped out of the rankings: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
5th place: Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy, a billionaire entrepreneur, makes his debut in the top five of our power ranking.
Known for his so-called “anti-woke” messaging, Ramaswamy has said the country is in a national identity crisis and claims “faith, patriotism and hard work” have been replaced with “new secular religions like COVID-ism, climate-ism and gender ideology,” the Associated Press has reported.
“He is an effective communicator and appears to be gaining traction among millennials and GOP activists,” said Gibbs Knotts, a political science professor at the College of Charleston.
Ramaswamy has made several visits to the Palmetto State and is scheduled to return later this month to speak at the Dorchester County GOP Faith, Family & Freedom Dinner.
“He’s slowly gaining traction among conservatives as he crisscrosses the early states, but will the campaign’s outreach on media kick into gear in time and enough to build his brand even more? Politically, he’s right on the issues. Passionately, he can articulate a strong message. Presidentially, will people see him yet as a viable candidate? That’s the question Vivek has to answer,” said Dave Wilson, a longtime political strategist in South Carolina.
Tied for third place: Ron DeSantis
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis drops down one spot in the power rankings.
His campaign recently laid off a third of its total staff as it faced questions about how much it was spending and how much money it still had available for the primary after the second-quarter fundraising reports were released.
“Has the campaign ‘death-spiral’ begun? It happens every election cycle: campaign runs short of money and has to cut staff,” said Chase Meyer, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina. “Cutting staff results in bad headlines and donors question if this is the right candidate to support. Donors cut back their donations, resulting in the campaign having to cut even more staff and it becomes an endless cycle. Massive staff cuts is never a sign of a winning campaign.”
Even though the DeSantis campaign has cut staff, the Never Back Down super PAC backing DeSantis is picking up the slack, knocking on doors, and has run TV ads in South Carolina.
“Shoe leather and door knocking are important in this state. Just ask Barack Obama’s team in 2008,” Wilson said.
Tied for third place: Nikki Haley
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley moves up one spot in the power rankings.
“She has not done much over the last month, but she has avoided the negative news stories that have plagued DeSantis,” Meyer said. “Sometimes no news is good news.”
However, Haley has made recent policy addresses on U.S.-China foreign relations, abortion, entitlement reform and energy policy, among other issues. Haley has made numerous visits to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and a super PAC backing her has reserved TV ad time in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Haley also even moved up into second place in one recent Fox Business poll of would-be GOP primary voters in South Carolina.
“In the event of a wide open race, or one in which she has placed well in one or more of the earlier contests, there is no reason to believe that the people who elected Nikki Haley governor twice won’t take another chance on her to lead them as president,” said Rob Godfrey, a South Carolina political consultant who worked for Haley as her deputy chief of staff when she was governor.
Observers say Haley will need to start to gain momentum by getting more headlines.
“Her staying power is more than ample as a politician, but as other candidates and PACs supporting them kick into a next gear over the next few weeks, the question is whether or not she’ll be able to continue to keep pace with the pack,” Wilson said.
Second Place: Tim Scott
U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, of South Carolina, moves up one spot in the rankings.
Scott reported having $21 million cash on hand, and he has been on the air in both Iowa and New Hampshire. A super PAC supporting him also has planned media buys to help increase his name recognition.
“His likability sets him apart from other candidates,” said Danielle Vinson, a professor of Politics and International Affairs at Furman University.
Recent polling also has shown Scott in third place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, which both vote before the South Carolina primary.
“If he earns one of the top two or three tickets out of one or more of the first contests, there will be excitement — not to mention built in media interest — surrounding his campaign when it comes home,” Godfrey said. “As someone who has recently been on the ballot in South Carolina, the senator will be used to asking for votes here, he will have a unique opportunity to ask them for votes again under exciting circumstances, and voters may well want to choose one of their own.”
But with increased media attention comes increased scrutiny.
“His polling numbers have increased and he seems to be taking supporters away from DeSantis,” Meyer said. “This means the media attention and the spotlight will soon turn on him. Will he fade and whither in the spotlight similar to DeSantis?”
First place: Donald Trump
The former president was the unanimous No. 1 pick of the power ranking’s voters.
“His hold on the GOP base remains strong and will only be helped with his appearance at the S.C. GOP Silver Elephant event in August. SC voters don’t care what happens in Iowa or New Hampshire generally but if he manages to lose one of those, because of the legal problems, it might, might waver some,” said Chip Felkel, a public and political affairs strategist who worked on the presidential campaigns of George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.
Indictments against Trump have only seemed to strengthen support for him among GOP primary voters. All the attention around his court cases has allowed Trump to take up air time and attention.
“Recent polling shows him nearing the 50% threshold in South Carolina among Republican voters,” Wilson said. “Unless there is a true silver bullet among the Biden DOJ’s arsenal, expect their attacks on Trump to build a resilience among his base and backfire on their efforts to weaken Trump.”
Vinson put it more succinctly.
“Indictments apparently still don’t matter. He’s leading the polls,” she said.
This story was originally published August 3, 2023 at 10:21 AM.
